• Thu. Mar 28th, 2024

Penguins Got ‘Dem Heavy Team Blues

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ByRick Buker

Jan 25, 2017

Sounds like a line from a Muddy Waters song. The Penguins got ‘dem heavy team blues.

A shame I’m not referring to an old Delta Blues tune. Or even the St. Louis Blues, the bruising denizens of the Western Conference who delivered more than a few lumps en route to a 3-0 drubbing of the black and gold at PPG Paints Arena last night.

I’m talking heavy teams in general.

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I’ve been concerned all year about how the Pens have fared against brawnier competition. Especially in the wake of twin 7-1 embarrassments meted out by Columbus and Washington, Metro Division rivals that combine skill with bulk. So I decided to break down the Pens’ 2016-17 performance based on the average weight of opposing teams (see table below), according to a study by James Mirtle of The Globe and Mail.

The results are eye-catching. Worse yet, they confirm my fears. The Pens have, indeed, struggled this season against bigger NHL clubs.

Against the 10 heaviest teams in the league, they’ve compiled a pedestrian 6-5-5 record. They’ve been outscored by a wide margin, too.

With an 11-5 mark, the Pens have fared better against the comparative middleweights (teams 11-20 on the list). Facing foes in their own weight class (teams 21-30)? They’re a virtual juggernaut at 13-2.

Still, odds are good that we’ll face a Columbus or Washington come playoff time. Our chances of repeating as Stanley Cup champions hinge on doing a better job against our bulky brethren.

How do we accomplish that?

I wish I knew. GM Jim Rutherford and coach Mike Sullivan clearly are committed to winning with a fast, skilled team. Unless it’s done with surgical precision, trying to remake the Pens into a hybrid heavy team would likely result in a botched retool resembling an on-ice version of Frankenstein’s monster.

Chicago’s Stan Bowman faced similar issues last season. He tried to bulk up by adding Andrew Ladd and Dale Weiss at the trade deadline. The moves failed miserably, culminating in an uncharacteristic first-round playoff exit for the Blackhawks.

In the end, you’ve got to be true to who you are.

Still, the problem isn’t going to go away. Let’s hope the Pens find a solution.

Penguins 2016-17 Record Based on Average Weight of NHL Teams
Team Avg Wt GP W L OT PTS GF GA
Colorado 209.7 1 0 0 1 1 3 4
Buffalo 207.1 1 0 0 1 1 1 2
Los Angeles 207.0 2 0 0 2 2 2 4
Dallas 206.7 1 1 0 0 2 6 2
Columbus 206.3 1 0 1 0 0 1 7
St. Louis 206.1 1 0 1 0 0 0 3
Winnipeg 205.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Washington 204.7 4 2 2 0 4 14 21
New York Rangers 204.0 3 2 1 0 4 15 8
Toronto 203.3 2 1 0 1 3 5 3
Subtotal (Teams 1-10)   16 6 5 5 17 47 54
San Jose 203.1 2 2 0 0 4 8 2
Nashville 202.4 1 0 1 0 0 1 5
New York Islanders 202.3 3 2 1 0 4 10 9
Anaheim 202.2 2 2 0 0 4 8 3
Edmonton 202.0 1 1 0 0 2 4 3
Arizona 201.2 1 1 0 0 2 7 0
Detroit 201.1 2 1 1 0 2 8 9
Minnesota 200.9 2 0 2 0 0 4 10
Calgary 200.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Carolina 199.4 2 2 0 0 4 10 3
Subtotal (Teams 11-20)   16 11 5 0 22 60 44
Ottawa 199.2 2 1 1 0 2 9 9
Tampa Bay 199.2 2 2 0 0 4 10 5
Montreal 199.0 3 2 1 0 4 8 8
Florida 198.6 2 2 0 0 4 8 3
Boston 197.9 2 2 0 0 4 9 4
New Jersey 197.8 3 3 0 0 6 13 6
Pittsburgh 197.4
Philadelphia 196.4 1 1 0 0 2 5 4
Chicago 195.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Vancouver 194.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subtotal (Teams 21-30)   15 13 2 0 26 62 39
Total   47 30 12 5 65 169 137
23 thoughts on “Penguins Got ‘Dem Heavy Team Blues”
  1. Hey Guys and Gals
    FYI.
    Something really cool just happened 5 minutes ago and has a Pittsburgh flavor to it.
    I am watching NHL All star celebration tonight.
    The NHL is announcing top 100 players of the NHL 100 years.
    From the 1990s decade they announced the all star centers including Steve Yzerman and Matt Sundin
    and many others. Mario is announced last and gets a standing ovation. Really cool.
    A giant among legends. He is the ONLY player to win Cups as an owner and a player.
    He did Pittsburgh proud.

    PS . EARLIER ON CBC THEY ASKED HIM IF HE WOULD LIKE TO PLAY IN THE 3 ON 3 TOURNAMENT Tommorrow WITH # 4 and his good friend #99.
    Very classy answer. He said give Bobby the puck and stand at the Blue line and try not to get in his way.

    Sidney Crosby just got recognized and J. Jagr.
    Good night for the Pen’s.
    Cheers

    1. One point I missed.
      Crosby.Ovi.Toews.Kane. are among the top 100 of all time. Congratulations. Really something. I was to busy texting.
      Plus Mario,Wayne,and Bobby all said Gordie Howe was the greatest player of all time.

      1. Hey Coach,
        Before I answer your question please allow me to add. ..Mario was VERY IMPRESSIVE last night.I keep thinking about it.
        I watched both on English TV and a bit of his native Quebec channel in French.Real class.
        In a joint News conference with Bobby Orr and Wayne Gretzky earlier in the day he was very diplomatic. He knew his place as #3 greatest living player in the NHL .Both Wayne and Mario deferred to Orr as the greatest of them,but all agreed that Howe was the best ever…on the ice and OFF. From personal experience I know Howe came to my City several times for free to help raise money for minor hockey…We raised million dollars +.
        One last point. Dick Irvin junior, legendary retired long term Montreal broadcaster, ( His father Coached Montreal for years), said at the celebration that his all time 3 Quebec players. 1. Jean Belliveau 2. Rocket Richard and 3. Mario….. The one that got away he said. Think about that Coach…of all time.

        He was just given an ORDER of CANADA…our highest National Honor.
        In the Quebec French nation of 8 million people he is
        more recognized and revered than Celine Dion.
        To answer your question.( In their prime )
        1.Orr on Defense.
        2. Mario at Center
        3. VALERI Karlamov( do not know the spelling ). Right Wing
        You probably never heard of him. For 3 games the best player I ever saw. He reminds me of Mc David only faster. In 1972 when the Russians and Canada had their series where the best Canadian players played Team Russia, at the height of the Cold War. First 4 games in Canada then 4 games in Russia.
        Karlamov was unstoppable. I am not proud to say this, and my mother who was an avid hockey fan never accepted our victory because we had to Cheat to win the series. Coach Harry Sinden and other officals ordered Bobby Clarke to break Karlamov’s leg…and he did.Took a special reinforced stick and slashed him in game 3 or 4..It has been along time.
        Sinden said if he plays we lose.!!!
        He returned to hockey but was never the same.

        I truly believe Mario was a better center than Wayne because if his size and reach.
        For Goal…Dominick Hasek…
        But it would not matter ..nobody would beat these guys.

        Traditionalist fans will say.
        1.Orr
        2. Howe
        3. GRETZKY
        4.GOAL Terry Sawchuk

        The biggest difference in Howe and #99 and #66 is that Howe would do anything to win.They would not last 2 minutes against Howe.
        Wayne said that several times. Howe would have thrown an elbow in my face and broke my jaw and the red would never see it.
        Haha. He was that fast Coach.

        But I like your picks too.
        Jim

        1. Hey Jim,

          I agree, you can’t teach size or reach so I choose Mario over Wayne. Also, I do think Howe was the greatest Winger, but I chose 2-Centers for FO purposes. So, if I were to go with a C and a W I would go with Mario and Gordie. On D there is no question Orr.

          Interesting about what you; that Gretzky and Lemieux both deferred to Orr as the greatest of the 3. I am not going to argue that point either. I loved to watch him. I let Rick jump in and tell his Orr story. I don’t want to steal his thunder.

          It’s funny my western bias is showing. I elided over a lot of great Russian players from the late 60s and 70s. I know there are those who like to throw Tretiak in the mix of goalies. I do remember Karlamov but I never heard the story about Clarke and Sinden, I am not surprised, just never heard it. Thanks for the little back story. You are like the color analyst for this blog, bringing interesting back ground info that most of us aren’t otherwise privy too.

          Let’s see if anyone else jumps in and gives us there top 3 on 3 team.

          And by the way, my full All Star team from players I watched would be as Follows;

          First Team Second Team
          C Lemieux Gretzky
          RW Howe Jagr
          LW B Hull Messier (He played some LW for Edm)
          D Orr Potvin
          D Coffey Savard
          G Dryden Roy

          Just my list from players I watched. Obviously there are a lot of great players to choose from and I won’t argue someone’s picks. Also obviously I do have a western bias

          1. Sorry my All Star list didn’t come out as readable as I wanted it too, the software changed how it look from when I typed it.

            Also, Rick, Phil, Jayelene, 55 on point, or anyone else, feel free to jump in.

          2. Hey Coach
            Great stuff.
            Denis Potvin was my number 2 as well.
            Gretzky said Potvin was the hardest player to play against ever,because he could hit you with a check
            cleanly and you never saw it coming.
            He want on to say that the only time he felt truly safe
            was when Dennis was in the penalty box.

            My All star NHL team
            First team.
            Howe wing
            Mario Center
            Bossy Wing
            Orr
            Potvin

            Hasek
            Second Team

            Rocket Richard
            Gretzky
            Messier

            Lindstrom
            Robinson

            Roy

            Let’s see others choice.
            Cheers

            1. Hey guys,

              Great thoughts and great picks. And Jim, GREAT recollections, especially the Clarke-Kharlamov incident. The slash heard (and seen) ’round the hockey world.

              I started watching hockey in earnest in the early ’70s, so my picks are kind of skewed to who I’ve seen. However, I tried to give due to players of earlier times, based on what I’ve heard and read. Here goes:

              FIRST TEAM
              Left wing–Bobby Hull
              Center–Mario Lemieux
              Right wing–Gordie Howe
              Defense–Bobby Orr
              Defense–Doug Harvey
              Goal–Jacques Plante

              SECOND TEAM
              Left wing–John Bucyk
              Center–Wayne Gretzky
              Right wing–Jaromir Jagr
              Defense–Ray Bourque
              Defense–Larry Robinson
              Goal–Bernie Parent

              HONORABLE MENTION
              Rocket Richard (rw), Phil Esposito (c), Luc Robitaille (lw), Denis Potvin (d), Ken Dryden (g), Mike Bossy (rw), Guy Lafleur (rw), Red Kelly (d-c), Brad Park (d), Pavel Bure (rw)

              One of the first games I recall watching was around 1971 or 1972. Bruins vs Rangers. Bobby Orr picked up the puck behind his net, skated through the entire Rangers team and beat the goalie (I believe Gilles Villemure, although it could’ve been Ed Giacomin).

              Near the end of his career, when his knees were shot and he was basically playing on one leg, he tallied 23 points in 20 games for Chicago in 1976-77.

              It’s hard to argue with Orr as the greatest ever. Oh, he was a plus-124 in 1970-71. Let that sink in for a moment … 🙂

              Rick

            2. Rick, Jim,

              Don’t know how I forgot Larry Robinson, but great pick. I may have to flip him for my Savard pick.

              Also Rick, I had to wrestle a bit over Parent myself. I still like my picks but what a goalie he was.

              I wish I would have seen the Rocket but I barely remember Boom Boom Geofrion and Maurice’s brother, the pocket rocket, Henri.

              Also, I had a hard time not calling on Bossy, what a pure sniper he was. Love your other honorable mention’s Rick; Park (who I also forgot) and Espo.

              It is also hard to not mention Lindstrom and Bourque (Ray not the old 29er) among D men.

              But as you pointed out Rick when you compare anyone to a Defensemen who was a +124 all others pale.

              Other players I thought about as I was thinking about my list; Yvon Cournoyer (Also I always loved saying his name as a kid), Tony Esposito, The Golden Brett, Al Iafrate. Jari Kurri, Mark Howe, Chris Chelios, Peter Forsberg, Joe Sakic, Vic Hadfield, and Charlie Simmer.

            3. Hey Other Rick,

              We’ve run of out replies, so this is a kind of PS.

              That’s what’s tough (and fun) about picking all-time teams. There have been so many great players through the years. The bunch you mentioned, plus guys like Stan Mikita, Andy Bathgate, Terrible Ted Lindsay, Terry Sawchuk, Johnny Bower, Glenn Hall, Jean Beliveau (how did I not mention him until now), Frank Mahovlich … you could go on and on.

              Even though they didn’t compile big numbers, there are folks who swear by old-timers like Syl Apps, Sr., Max Bentley, Bryan Hextall, Sr. and Eddie Shore.

              So many greats!

              Rick

    2. Hey Jim,

      I can only go back to the late 60s, so that is my choice for a 3 on 3 line up. Many people may want to go with Roy or Broduer in goal, still others that can really go back farther than me may opt for Plante, Hall, or Sawchuck and I wouldn’t argue with them, but I am going to add Dryden to that 3 on 3 as my Goalie.

      What is your 3 on 3 + Goalie team

  2. Hi Guys,

    Rough one in Boston last night, huh? Marchand! (Picture Jerry Seinfeld answering the door with disgust to Newman.) Just wondering, does anyone know how serious Geno’s injury might be? (I’m hoping it’s not too bad, and that sitting him might have been mostly an opportunistic move, given the schedule. But I haven’t read anything.) Also, any thoughts on why they didn’t take the opportunity to take a look at Oskar Sundqvist (rather than bringing up another center and sitting him)?

    Jayelene

    1. Hey Jayelene,

      Really good questions. (Nice reference to Newman, too.) I wish I had really good answers.

      I’ll focus on Sundqvist. I think Sullivan likes Tom Kuhnhackl (so do I) and shifting Guentzel to center opened up a spot for him on wing. Still, I’m surprised Sundqvist wasn’t called up instead of Carter Rowney. Not that Rowney–a late bloomer at age 27– isn’t deserving.

      The only thing I can figure is the Pens want to disrupt Sundqvist’s development as little as possible. I get the feeling they still view him as a work in progress, even though he’s had a strong season at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.

      I really liked what I saw of him last year–big body, protects the puck well, some skill to boot.

      Rick

      1. Hey Jayelene and Rick,

        I think you may be right that Sullivan doesn’t seem to look at Sundqvist as his best option. I haven’t been able to understand this, every time I have watched him he has played extremely well for a kid, particularly his body position and his ability to protect the puck. Up until now I haven’t thought that deeply about it though, choosing t trust Sullivan rather than my own instincts. However, now I am thinking about it.

        RIck, you suggest that Sullivan likes Kuhnhackl and that is the answer, but I am not so sure. As I think about it, Kuhnhackl has been a healthy scratch quite often and is getting less ice time even when he dresses this year than when he was a rookie, last year. And even when he does dress he usually dresses at the expense of Fehr.

        When I look at these three players I do see a common thread, these three players would represent three of the larger players on the team. I do trust Sullivan, but this causes me some concern, considering your graphics above Rick that demonstrate how the team record dips when the smaller players that do play, at these players expense, face larger, heavier opponents. I can’t hep but wonder if the Pens as a team have a bit of a prejudice against bigger players.

        Don’t get me wrong, I am not complaining. The Pens are winning. I won’t start questioning decisions unless they can’t figure out a strategy to keep the David/Goliath train running. If Sullivan doesn’t figure out a way to start beating those heavier teams that lean on them and wear them down, then I will revisit this thought.

  3. Hey Rick,
    Where do you get the time to do all this amazing research? You totally amaze us with your analytical skills and passion for statistics.
    27 th out of 30 teams in the league. But we still won the Cup. Last year we had Lovejoy, and now his replacement is 20 pounds lighter, so that may skew your average half a pound. But over all we were are one of the smaller teams in the league.
    Interesting stats on teams that give us trouble. GAA is very telling my friend.
    As we all have been saying, we need to get heavier, bigger and gritter.
    Great article. Tells a lot .

    PS : Buffalo ? Toronto ?? Edmonton ??? These teams are all so young !
    Could be a trend Rick…Bigger, Faster, and Younger.
    Cheers 🙂

    1. Hey Jim,

      Thank you, my friend … 🙂

      It’s a challenge sometimes, that’s for sure. But the ideas just kind of pop into my head. I’m sure the good Lord helps me … 🙂

      Rick

    2. Hi Rick,

      I have to jump in with Jim and the Other Rick – this is a really insightful analysis, and I thank you for the work you put into it. (And for having the vision to think of doing it!) Mark Twain said, “There are lies, damned lies and statistics.” Not to question Mark Twain’s genius, but he never knew Rick Buker! These statistics are telling, and paint a pretty dismal picture for the Pens’ chances of making a deep run. Personally, I think it will come down to the in-conference matchup – the Caps and the Blue Jackets are the teams that worry me most, and it seems unlikely we can advance without going through either DC or Columbus. (And I serious disdain for John Tortorelli, so it physically hurts to write that!)

      But like you guys, I struggle with knowing what the answer is. The stumbling Frankenstein’s monster that could result from an ill-advised trade isn’t a comforting thought.

      In any event, Go Penguins!

      1. Hey Jayelene,

        Like you, I think the road to a (Cup) repeat is going to go through Columbus and/or Washington. And I’m not super confident in our ability to beat either team in a seven-game set.

        As I mentioned in my response to Other Rick, it seems that opposing teams have stopped trying to match our speed (a futile endeavor) and instead are focusing on sound positional play and staying in the shooting lanes. Kind of what Montreal did to us back in the 2010 playoffs.

        It worked then, and it seems to be working now. By staying in position, they’re kind of forcing us to take the long way around, thus negating our speed and keeping us in the lower percentage shooting areas.

        To me, this is where our lack of size is telling. With few exceptions (Hornqvist) we aren’t able to bull our way through.

        I noticed the Blues were also jumping on our kick-out passes to the point.

        Again, if teams try to skate with us—as many still do—they’re toast. But if foes commit to a sound defensive game, and have size and skill to go with it (the Caps and Blue Jackets), they’re causing us problems.

        I think Mike Sullivan’s a terrific coach. And if anyone can devise a counter strategy, he can. But some of it boils down to physics…and physiology. I just wish we had a few bigger bodies to help us if/when we’re forced to play a more grinding, straightforward game.

        Rick

        1. Sorry, I may have to disagree slightly here. My gut playoff prediction is; Was + CBJ best bet to go to the conference finals is to have Pens knocked out in the 1st round whether they do it or the NYR does it.

          Was psyche is so fragile that they will start looking for reasons be able to get an early Tee time. Friends of mine from the DC area always start bringing up Was epic melt downs around this time of the year. As good as they can be in the regular season the specter of their past weighs like a millstone around their necks the deeper they get in the playoffs. Some day they no doubt they will shake off thar monkey but smart money goes against them until they do.

          Columbus looked like a juggernaught for a time, but as the built they showed they may not be ready to handle it. They went on a losing streak right after their winning streak. If they crack under the pressure in the play-offs and go on a 4 game losing streak they too will be looking for early Tee times.

          Was + CBJ may have big, heavy teams, but their emotional strength is not as big as their physical strangth and has shown enough cracks to suggest that it may not be big enough to get to the Conference finals unless they play each other in those finals, in which case one of them has to win.

          1. Hey Other Rick,

            I wish I felt as confident as you about Columbus and Washington. While I’m not predicting a Stanley Cup for either, I think they’re both for real.

            The Blue Jackets have been playing of late without two of their better defensemen–David Savard and Markus Nutivaara. Savard, who won two best defenseman awards in the Quebec League in 2009-10, is very underrated.

            The Caps? I’m not saying history and/or perception doesn’t affect a team’s performance. I think the Pens–especially from 2011-14–felt the weight of high expectations in the playoffs. Brooks Orpik alluded to it when he left town, saying something to the effect that it wasn’t as enjoyable for him his last couple of seasons in the ‘Burgh.

            But these guys are pros. I can’t imagine Alex Ovechkin turning to T.J. Oshie in the Caps’ locker room and saying, “You know, we just never seem to beat these guys.”

            And even though we took them in six games last year, that was a close series. One that–with an unlucky bounce of the puck here or there–could’ve easily gone the other way.

            Rick

            1. Hi Coach,Rick & Jaylene, ( Sounds like a folk group from the 60’s.)
              I too believe that Washington, Columbus, and even Montreal could give us trouble in the play offs unless we get some key changes to our team.
              You mentioned that the elite teams could change their strategy in dealing with our run and gun style.
              It was not that long ago when the Pen’s won their first two cups and that Pens team had size, speed, skill and grit.
              Four key ingredients to win any Championship. As your research shows above Rick that todate we have a more difficult time with bigger teams.When your team is 27th out of 30th in terms of size, it should be a concern.
              With regards to choking in the Play offs I think often that can be turned into a motivation technique as well. Time will tell.
              One point to remember is what if … The Bluejackets,Capitals or Canadians get a really good rental player or 2 and we remain unchanged. That will put a lot pressure on us.
              All these teams I mentioned are very close to us and anything could happen.
              I keep thinking of Shane Doane in a Capitals uniform would not be an opponent I would want to face.
              Cheers

  4. Hey Rick,

    Great post! Great comparison graphic!

    We have trod this ground before. That is why you, me and some others always bring up a bigger, heavier D man on our wish lists. I know the Pens did it last year and therefore have the potential of doing it again, but it does trouble me. Barring an Francis/Ulfie deal in JRs future the team is going to have to deal with it. My only consolation is to offer this; it may be possible for the Pens to suck it up, not back down, and give the same David/Goliath effort that won them the Cup last year is the only have to maintain that type of energy output for a limited time frame of 1 or 2 7 game series’.

    Just to regress a bit, Phil if you are reading, with regard to your idea of trading Letang; many years ago I was irate over the trading of Paul Coffey but it really did work out. I am not sure the Pens will deal anyone let alone Letang, but your idea has historical merit.

    1. Hey Other Rick,

      Thank you! Even though I knew the Pens were having more difficulty with heavy teams, it still surprised me when I saw the numbers.

      Phil reminded me that we’d actually handled bigger teams fairly well last season…especially in the playoffs. And I remember one regular-season game, in particular, where we just blew away a very good (and large) Ducks team, 6-2. They literally couldn’t touch us.

      I’m not sure what’s happened. Seems that opposing coaches like Ken Hitchcock and Barry Trotz have (wisely) instructed their teams not to chase us around. Opting, instead, for sound positional play with a physical bent.

      I thought the Blues did a great job of stopping us before we got started, fronting our guys almost as soon as they got the puck. Which, of course, prevented us from getting to our speed game or developing any flow.

      Other than turning up the intensity and energy level, I’m not sure Sullivan’s figured out how to effectively counter. It doesn’t help that we’re struggling to win faceoffs, which puts more of an emphasis on winning puck battles against bigger teams.

      A little bit of a separate note. It also seems the more grooved we’ve become in Sully’s system, we either blow teams out or vice versa. Not too much middle ground.

      Rick

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