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The Penguins, the Leafs, and Rumors

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ByThe Other Rick

Nov 21, 2019

So, yesterday afternoon, I had a moment to relax, in between working for pay and volunteer hours. I chose to waste that moment on the hockey rumor mill of the internet.

Yes, yes, yes, I know, I often complain about the inanity of many to most of those rumors. So, why did I go down that rabbit hole?

Well, first of all, I was starting to bob and weave with the exhaustion of getting up at 3:30 every morning and the need to stay awake to fulfill the volunteer hours to come, without compromising my ability to fall asleep in time to start the cycle all over again. To that end I chose to try and find something silly enough to cause my blood pressure to go back up for a few more hours to get through the evening’s commitments.

I found an interesting rumor detailing the dissatisfaction in Toronto over their favorite hockey team’s plight. The Maple Leafs entered the season with high, high hopes and tons of talent but are currently wallowing below our Pittsburgh Penguins, 1 point below 0.500 and 2 points out of the final playoff spot but having played 1 – 3 games more than most teams around them, therefore their position could get worse.

The article/rumor spoke of a Coach who has 0.608 winning percentage (W%) in the regular season, has 1 Stanley Cup win and 3 Stanley Cup appearances but who has lost his locker room and suggested what some here in Pittsburgh consider sacrilege, fire the Coach rather than try and trade away the players. By the time I got home, Maple Leafs’ Coach Mike Babcock found himself out of a job. It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out.

The rumor also goes on to talk about some potential trades that our northern Neighbor may be considering, trades that would involve our Penguins. The rumor suggests that the Blue and White may be courting a trade involving swapping Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs) Tyson Barrie for Justin Schultz and even more so a push for one of our Goalies. The article I read suggested Toronto try and buy low for Casey DeSmith but ask about Tristan Jarry.

When I first read the story, I did find the whole story intriguing and began plotting the writing of my own thoughts about the story. As interesting as I found the Coaching similarity to a recent unpleasantness here in Pittsburgh, my thoughts were and are mainly focused on the idea of the trade(s) purportedly being considered by Toronto’s management.

In truth, I am not all that upset with the performance of most of the players on our team’s roster. Our Penguin’s struggles to stay in the playoff race could be more of a question of health rather than ability. However, as I have stated several times, everyone is tradable in my books, so I started thinking who would I want if I were the GM and Toronto approached me?

First and foremost, let me state once again that I am not saying I would actively want to trade, my little game here is a question of what would it take to get me to be willing to part with one of the players that the rumor suggests Toronto is interested in.

I like Schultz and it would be easier for Toronto to get Kris Letang off me than Schultz. However, the reality here is A) Schultz is UFA at the end of the year and there will be several UFA and Restricted Free Agents (RFA), there may not be enough money to go around and B) we all know that Letang is not going anywhere. Furthermore, John Marino looks like he is developing nicely and is finding a way to make Jack Johnson look good in a way similar to how Simon Despres was able to keep Rob Scuderi afloat.

As for the Goalie situation, going into next year, it is highly doubtful that from a business situation Jim Rutherford and Mike Sullivan will be able to keep status quo, 1 Goalie will have to be sacrificed. In an exchange of replies with our own Phil Krundle, I wrote that I would not be in favor of trading any Goalie until after the expansion draft and I still think that is a policy to be followed.

However, if Toronto is in a serious mind to trade, what would move my needle (your needle if you want to play too) off zero? Hmm

I would never trade Schultz for Barrie straight up, regardless of their UFA status; let’s put that out there right away. Furthermore, Toronto couldn’t take on Schultz’s salary, they have no Cap space. Even though Barrie’s base salary is higher than Schultz’s salary, the Colorado Avalanche retained a large portion of that salary, so Barrie is only a $2.75 million Cap hit while Schultz is a $5.5 Million hit.

To get me to consider this deal, first, we wait until Letang gets back before we pull the trigger on the deal. Furthermore, since I really don’t want Barrie, I need to find a possible replacement. Even though he is playing for the Red Wings‘ AHL affiliate the Grand Rapids Griffins right now, I ask Detroit about what it would take to get Oliwer Kaski (a Finnish Defenseman I first mentioned last summer as a player I wanted Rutherford to sign as a FA). I would try and direct their attention to Toronto’s roster as well as my own.

Next, if Rutherford isn’t going to try and resign Schultz then Toronto GM, Kyle Dubas, I want at least Kasperi Kapanen too as well as a draft pick or whoever Detroit may want for Kaski. I may settle for the 3rd round pick you have from the Columbus Blue Jackets. Now you get the defenseman you want, get rid of an unwanted defenseman, and I get a forward I want.

Let’s face it, even though the Penguins management may be committed to keeping Letang, even at the expense of Schultz, Letang is injury prone so even though Marino looks good so far, a plan “B” needs to be in place when (not if) Letang gets injured again.

As for the Goalie situation, I am at least as ill disposed to trade here as I am about giving up Schultz, but trying to think this through, what would my counteroffer be to Toronto if they approached me?

I can’t believe I am saying this, at the moment, Jarry would be off the table. As much as I like Matt Murray, with the early returns on how Jarry is playing and both Goalies are RFA this summer, I would let these 2 fight it out for the future of the team, possibly even let the pair push each other for a couple of seasons until their salaries prohibit the keeping of them both. Of course, that would mean the team get creative at expansion draft time but in the end it may be worth it.

Since I take Jarry off the table, Toronto, I want Ilya Mikheyev for Desmith and bump that 3rd round pick from Columbus up to your 2nd round pick in next year’s draft. Mikheyev is $0.925 million and DeSmith is $1.25 million. The $0.45 million the Leafs’ would save in trading Barrie and Kapanen for Schultz would give them a cushion to absorb the $0.3 million in taking on DeSmith for Mikheyev.

Like Kaski, Mikheyev is a player I mentioned in the off season as a European FA I would court. He is a left-handed Right Winger (RW) who has 4 Goals (G), 12 Points (Pnts) and is a +4. Left-Handed RWs tend to excel on Sidney Crosby’s starboard wing.

To get this trade done I would be willing to throw in Alex Galchenyuk and/or Dominik Simon and retain their salary for the rest of the season. Galchenyuk is not really fitting in here. He is taking up a roster spot and may not be getting the chance to succeed in the Black and Gold system.

As for Simon, his shooting is abysmal and even though his Corsi may look good on the surface, it is deceiving. When you weigh his Corsi against the Corsi  of the players that he tends to face while he is on the ice, it neutralizes to just about average.

I would much rather have both Kapanen and Mikheyev than Galchenyuk and Simon and if the rest of this rumor is true, then I would be able to get my wish. It would also give the team a host of assets at forward that they could use to find a Right-Handed Defenseman (RHD) should Kaski need a little more seasoning.

To sum it up, I would no be looking to trade anyone, but if I were asked about availability by a suitor this is where my thinking is right now. If they don’t like it, I don’t care, I don’t deal.

Tonight, 7 pm – revenge against the New York Islanders?

Go Pens!!

32 thoughts on “The Penguins, the Leafs, and Rumors”
  1. This is for Other Rick. I’ll end my argument the way I started it.

    Feb. 23, 2019: Murray allows two goals in the final three minutes of regulation to enable Philly to rally from a 3-1 deficit. He yields the overtime winner at 1:59 to cap the collapse.

    Mar. 1, 2019: Murray allows Buffalo to tie the game on a long-range shot with less than three minutes remaining in regulation. He yields the game winner with 49 seconds left in overtime.

    Mar. 17, 2019: Murray allows a goal with 19 seconds left in regulation to allow Philly to tie it. He yields the game-winner with four seconds left in overtime.

    Mar. 19, 2019: Murray allows a game-tying goal against Carolina with less than two minutes remaining. He yields the shootout winner on the first attempt.

    Apr. 6, 2019: After Murray yields two third-period goals to stake the Rangers to a 3-2 lead, the Pens tie the game with a late goal. Murray surrenders the game-winner at 2:09 of overtime.

    Apr. 10, 2019: The Penguins rally to tie the Islanders in Game 1 of the playoffs with 89 seconds left in regulation. Murray yields the game-winner on an odd-man break at 4:39 of overtime.

    Apr. 12, 2019: The Penguins take a 1-0 lead midway through the second period of Game 2. Murray allows the game-tying goal less than three minutes later. The Islanders win 3-1.

    Apr. 14, 2019: The Penguins take a 1-0 lead at 12:54 of the first period of Game 3. Murray allows the game-tying goal 28 seconds later and the goal-ahead goal 62 seconds after that. The Islanders win 4-1.

    Apr. 16, 2019: The Penguins take a 1-0 lead at 0:35 of the first period of Game 4. Murray allows the game-tying goal 1:34 later. The Islanders win 3-1.

    Nov. 12, 2019: The Penguins rally from a 2-0 deficit against the Rangers to tie the score. Murray yields the game-winner at 2:24 of overtime.

    Nov. 19, 2019: Murray allows two goals in the final 4:19 of regulation to allow the Islanders to tie the game. Murray yields the game-winner through the five-hole at 2:55 of overtime.

    Nov. 21, 2019: The Penguins rally to tie the Islanders with 30 seconds left in regulation. Murray yields the game-winner with 44 seconds left in overtime.

    Despite how it appears, I’m not trying to bury the kid. I am trying to prove a point. I think I’ve made it. He gives up goals at really bad times.

    While we’re tossing out stats? Murray’s Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) is -0.69. To be fair, it was 14.67 last season, -8.11 in 2017-18, 14.48 in ’16-17, and 5.23 in ’15-16.

    I’d like to think we can agree that he’s not on top of his game right now.

    Rick

    1. Rick,

      I am sorry to say once again – an once ot perception and a pound of obscure. Whether you want to acknowledge it or not your perception is skewed. You want to prove Murray is bad so you only remember 12 incidents that support your conclusion rather than search Murray’s full data.

      When I broke down Jarry’s first 6 games, I didn’t ignore any of the games. I included games he played well in and games he didn’t and tried to understand what happened within the confinces of the variables of the game.

      Had you looked at all of the 5 on 5 data for games tied or +/- 1 goal over the time frame Feb 2, 2019 until today that you cherry picked your memories from you would have seen that Matt Murray has a Sv% of 0.935% over the 1,390 minutes and 6 seconds he has played during the regular season (Part of last season and then this season – You set the time frame and the high stakes +/- 1 goal parameters your set).

      When you open it up to all strengths and include short handed and OT it does come down to 0.919, but the teams Sh% over that time is also rather average in those situations and parameters 7.86 5 on 5 and 9.33 during all strengths (adding in PP situations).

      Had you noted that over the last 3 seasons Matt Murray’s Sv% was a rather ordinary 0.912%, I would have actually paused and considered your argument but you didn’t. Of I still would have countered with Matt Murray has played more minutes with the score ranging tied or within 1 goal, 4,828.17 minutes, than most of the goalies in the league. He is a full standard deviation above average. But your argument would have appeared more objective rather than the subjective argument you made.

      I would have also pointed out that over Murray’s first 3 season’s his Sv% in tied or 1 goal games was 0.928%.

      As I wrote below, all of your arguments were used lasat year at the beginning of the year. When I said you and Phil were reactionaries and wait until the end of the year, you weren’t disuaded.

      There still is nearly 3/4 of a season and yet here we are, another year and the same discussion; I promise you if you and Phil turn out to be right, I will acknowledge it, unlike what you 2 did at the end of last year.

      1. tOR,

        I agree with Rick.

        Murray’s number are horrid, His glove hand is horrid, he hasn’t the ability to field a slow wrister from the point. He no longer has the ability to play angles, plus he is slow side to side.

        The only decent numbers Murray put up in the last three years is when Sullivan made Desmith play against all the top scoring teams and back end of double headers to build up Murray’s confidence at the end of last season.

        Here we are again, new year, new excuse. What is it this year again??? His goalie coach? Jarry has the same coach. Jarry faces almost 20% more shots per game than Murray and is playing only game two of the back to back games.

        Is there any reason for me to even bother to mention how horrible Murray’s playoff numbers have been?

        Jarry is #1 in the NHL in Save%, Murray is 35th. Out of 31 teams.

        Throwing Jarry under the bus to build up Matt Murray is out of the question after three years of excuses and three years of other goalies backstopping the team better under the exact same circumstances.

        1. Phil,

          I have not thrown Jarry under the bus, nor have I made excuses for Murray. When he was bad I have said he was bad, when he was good, I have pointed out he was good. When “haters” crawl out and hate I mearly point out holes in their arguments.

          In Jarry’s case, I have said if he can beat out Murray, then he gets the job just as I said when Murray beat out MAF he deserved the job. The most negative thing I have said about Jarry is that he is still rather unproven. He has only played 6 games this season usually against 2nd or 3rd tier offenses. Of his 6 games, only 2 came against top Offenses TBL when they were struggling as a team and Boston. I have also pointed out in the 2 games he played last year he was awful, but again 2 games is hardly worth looking at. I don’t think I have mentioned the year before that when he was rather average with a Sv% of 0.908 in 26 games.

          Against TBL not only did I admit Jarry was stellar but I lauded him.

          Against Boston, even though the Bruins only start 27% of their FOs in the Penguins end and after his fowards staked him to the lead, Jarry failed stopping less than 90% of the shots.

          Unlike many Murray “Haters” as a former goalie, I know that happens some times. Just like even Crosby gets shutout and can’t buy a goal, Goalies sometimes have bad games too. I won’t complain about the Boston game.

          As for Murray, I have only pointed out that he was lights out under Bales but not under Buckley. perhaps there are other variables as well, but that is a place to start but since you have prompted more discussion here, let me throw this out to you as well; The average shot distance Tristan Jarry faces is from 42.52′. He may be facing more shots than Murray, but they are coming from down town, not really from danger areas.

          The average shot distance Murray faces is from 36.78′

          When you look at the high leverage moments +/- 1 goal, Jarry’s average shot distance is still from left field at 41.66′ while his average goal distance remains relatively stable, in fact goes up a little. Oppenents score on an average of 28.50′ away from Jarry in high leverage moments, up from 26.20′.

          In the mean time when the game is within 1 goal opponents average shot distance creeps down to 35.94′, yet Murray tightens down on the longer shots and opponents don’t score until they get opportunites within 21.42′ of the cage compared to the average goal length regardless of score of 27.13′

          Jarry’s 6 games is really not comparable to Murray’s 18 and I would rather have not brought these this up if you hadn’t but again you are only seeing the one birch tree in a forest of oaks. You are blind to the rest, blinded by a bias.

          Jarry is facing lighter competition and the team tightens down for him during the high leverage moments. Again, 6 games is hardly fair to judge but as of now, Jarry doesn’t tighten down but plays at best as well or maybe a hair off as opponents seem to score from farther away.

          Several years back you said MAF was not getting the protection that Murray was when he first came up and I promise you I am going to look as deeply into that tomorrow but as of tonight, the numbers bear that out with Murray. The team may give up fewer shots to Murray, but they are from closer in and more improtantly, during high leverage moments the team seems to lean on their goalie more, letting shooters get even closer, while Murray rises to the challenge, stopping shots at ranges farther out, while Jarry lets them in.

          Last year you reported Murray’s demise and yet at the end of the season he was in the tops of the league; you were wrong. This year you are again reporting his demise. Hmmm

        2. Hey Rick,

          While Looking at some info for another article I happened to look down the Penguins record this year. Just glanceing down the list, in a matter of 1 minute I saw Murray’s 29 Save performance in the OT win against Colorado on 10-16 and his 29 save performance in the SO win against Chi on 11-9. No wonder when I look at the data over time Murray’s numbers always come back up to show he is far better than your perceptions.

          To paraphrase Simon and Garfunkle’s the Boxer “Still a man sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest.” I am not saying I am any better. I have caught myself doing the same.

        3. Hey Phil,

          As promised, I looked at the first couple of seasons Murray was here and compared his data to MAFs to see if your assertion that the team insulated Murray better than MAF. The answer is not really. The number of shots blocked in front of them was roughly equal, less than 1 block slightly in favor of your premise but that is not significant. Regardless of situation 5 on 5 or all strengths the number of shots blocked by the “D” was a little over 15 when Murray was in net, a little less than 15 when MAF was in net.

          Looking at strength’s of schedule, MAF also had a slightly tougher time of it facing and average offensive ranking of 15.47 while Murray faced an average of a 16.88 team; a slight edge to your assertion again, but not enough to explain why Murray’s numbers across the board in Sv% during High Leverage moments or High Danger Chances was always 0.010% or more than MAF’s and Murray’s Saves above average was always double digits plus while MAF’s was always in the negative. MAF did put up solid numbers but Murray won that battle fair.

          At this point, Jarry is being insulated better than Murray in terms of on the ice defenesive play keeping shooters away from the net with low % shots from left field and in terms of off ice decisions – who he faces. To be sure, I agree, Jarry is playing well with his time, only tanking against Boston, 1 out of 6 games and that in relief and he deserves more playing time and possibly better opponents to see what his up side is.

          However, in a similar vein, Murray doesn’t deserve your vitriol.

  2. Hey all,

    Not to belabor the point, but amazing what a difference an effective goalie makes. Jarry was rock-solid last night, making 36 saves…including 19 in the second period alone…and the Penguins cruise to a win.

    No, the Devils aren’t the Islanders…not by a long shot. But it makes such a difference when your goalie isn’t constantly allowing the other team back in the game, as Murray’s been doing of late.

    Jarry’s allowed a total of two goals while making 68 saves over his last two starts…both blowout Pens wins. His save percentage for the season…a sterling .945. I think he merits a longer look in goal.

    Let’s hope Sullivan gets over his noted obstinance…especially when it involves one of his favorites like Murray…and gives Jarry an opportunity. A playoff berth could be riding on it.

    Rick

    PS–For the record, Murray has stopped 13 of 17 shots in overtime this season…a .765 save percentage. Since I couldn’t find a site that keeps overtime stats for goalies, I have nothing to compare it to. But I thought I’d share it.

    A final thought. Seth Rorabaugh of the Tribune-Review thinks Sullivan might be playing Murray too much and that he might be tired.

    1. I can’t remember the last time I talked up a player and he came out and played well the next game. Stick tap to Jarry.

      Back when the Penguins were winning their 2 Cups in a row I was getting into the Murray/Fleury controversy with TOR. I talked about how when Murray was in net it seemed like the Penguins played better defense and how It seemed like the other teams just shot the puck right into Murray all the time.

      TOR’s defense was that Murray was playing perfect angles and always in position. I started watching and I believe what he said was true. It was almost like Murray was able with his size to play the correct angles and block shots. I commented that Murray had a much more relaxing effect on me than Fleury.

      I’m not sure if the NHL figured out something or what happened, but they shrunk Murray and all of the goalies pads over a two year period. Murray was no longer able to just play those perfect angles. What the NHL did was a success and it has led to more scoring. I personally like seeing more scoring.

      That leads us to where we are now. I believe both Desmith and Jarry have outperformed Murray in net over the last three seasons. I realize that Desmith’s numbers where a tiny bit worse last season, but I’m also aware that Sullivan “Cherry Picked” games for Murray towards the end of the season to help Murray with his confidence and Desmith played all of the top scoring teams.

      I really hope Sullivan doesn’t throw Jarry under the bus to build Murray’s confidence. I understood it last year, but after 3 years it’s time to move on. I would like to see a fair goalie platooning.

      1. I agree, Phil.

        For whatever the reasons…and I think you offer some very plausible ones…Murray doesn’t seem to be the same goaltender he once was.

        Hindsight is always 20/20. But given the high his career started on, maybe there was only one way for things to trend. Downward.

        I was all for keeping Murray and letting Fleury go. I had the same impression of him that you did…that he was very calm and sure and on his angles…almost preternaturally so. I, too, think it rubbed off on the team.

        But now it’s almost the exact opposite. He looks rattled and unsure and vulnerable. As soon as the Islanders scored the third goal on Tuesday night, I knew they’d come back to win. You just get a sense. And when I saw Brock Nelson wheel over the line in OT on Thursday, I knew he was going to score.

        My guess is, Murray’s teammates know it, too. Instead of relaxing in front of him, they probably press in an attempt to protect him, which only amplifies the problem. It’s a testament to the character of the team that they haven’t let Murray’s struggles discourage them.

        Sullivan needs to use his head…be honest about what he sees…and play the goalie who gives us the best chance to win. Right now, that guy most assuredly isn’t Murray.

        Maybe, as Other Rick has hinted, it’s a matter of coaching. Murray enjoyed some extraordinary success early in his career (two Stanley Cups, 12 shutouts for the Baby Pens in 2014-15). It’s important to note he also had his struggles…he lost the starting job in junior with Sault Ste. Marie…which was why he was available to the Pens in the third round.

        Maybe he needs a new voice…or perhaps an old voice or an old coach…to get him back to his fundamentals and the things he did well. Too, I wonder if he might benefit from working with a sports psychologist, much as Fleury did. I also wonder if his dad’s passing might still be affecting him…I heard they were very close.

        I don’t know.

        All I know is, right now, he’s a very ordinary goalie.

        Rick

      2. Rick and Phil,

        While you two are patting yourselves on the back for the rare time you got something right (Jarry beating the 29th best offensive team in the league), please remember these points.

        1) It was our friend Jim Arthurs that first wrote that Tristan Jarry would be better than Matt Murray way back before either goalie played an NHL game, so if time does prove Jarry is better, Jim foresaw that while you guys were still unaware who these goalies were.

        2) I have always said which ever goalies is best should play – whether it was back when it was Murray/Fleury or now when you knee jerk reactionaries still smarting over Fleury’s departure want to crown Jarry. It never has to be, take this goalie over that one.

        3) Jarry’s season so far has been this;

        Winnipeg – Rank 25th in GF/GP, Rank 26th in S%, Pens O-Zone FOs 38%, Jarry’s Sv% 93.1

        Vegas – Rank 16th in GF/GP, Rank 25th in S%, Pens O-Zone FOs 57%, Jarry’s Sv% 95.5%

        Tampa Bay – Rank 3rd in GF/GP, Rank 4th in S%, Pens O-Zone FOs 26%, Jarry’s Sv% 93.3%

        Boston – Rank 5th in GF/GP, Rank 3rd in S%, Pens O-Zone FOs 73%, Jarry’s Sv% 85.7%

        Toronto – Rank 14th in GF/GP, Rank 21st in S%, Pens O-Zone FOs 44%, Jarry’s Sv% 97%

        New Jersey – Rank 29th in GF/GP, Rank 27th in S%, Pens O-Zone FOs 53, Jarry’s Sv% 97.3%

        Looking at those numbers, only the Tampa Bay game seems to be a game that Jarry really earned the statue you 2 are trying to erect for him. To be sure, he has earned more playing time and a serious look at possibly platooning – nothing more.

        4) While the 2 of you are preparing a post-modem on Matt Murray – more evidence that you are reactionaries not yet over MAF;

        Last season thru Nov

        Murray – GP 11, Sv% 0.877%, GAA 4.08
        Jarry – GP 2, Sv% 0.887%, GAA 3.50
        DeSmith – GP 16, Sv% 0.922, GAA 2,45

        Last Season from Nov til the end of the season

        Murray – GP 39, Sv% 0.930, GAA 2,34
        DeSmith GP 21, Sv% 0.911, GAA 2.96

        So after only playing 6 games this season, while getting torched by Boston even though the Bruins only started in the Pens Def Zone 27% of the time Jarry could only stop 85.7% of the shots he faced.

        I don’t care who wins a potential goalie battle as long as the Pens win. However, don’t be surprised when the smoke clears for the season if you both end up wrong again this year like you did last year when tried to report Murray’s demise back then and like Mark Twain, Murray survives your report.

        Oh, by the way, where is the you were right last year tOR and we were wrong?

  3. Hey all,

    With all due respect to Mike, who sparked this response, and all of our faithful commenters like Jorenz, I wanted to place this rant front and center.

    I’m totally disillusioned (and done) with Matt Murray. He can’t stop the puck when it really matters to save his life (no pun intended). Right now, I’d have more confidence in a cardboard cut-out with a game on the line.

    With about five minutes left in the third period of last night’s fiasco, Bob Errey bellowed something to the effect of “…when the going gets tough big goalies come up big.” He meant to compliment Murray. Except, right on cue, our “big goalie” promptly yields the go-ahead goal to Brock Nelson and it’s 3-2 Islanders.

    Meanwhile, Murray’s “performance” (I use that term loosely) continues to sink faster than the proverbial lead balloon. Fifty percent quality start percentage, .907 save percentage. Wow. Some goalie.

    He stinks.

    Phil maintained all along that Murray’s effectiveness waned the instant the NHL reduced the size of the goalies pads and I’m beginning to agree. Someone else mentioned that, too, the other day.

    Unfortunately, our coach keeps running Murray out there. And the kid keeps leaking backbreaking goals at crucial times and costing us precious points…points that’ll matter dearly come March and April.

    We need a goalie who’ll steal us a few wins, especially with big guns like Crosby and Letang on IR. Not undermine his team’s mostly solid efforts and fold-up like a cheap suit. Which, to my eye, was roughly what Murray was attempting to do on the OT winner last night.

    I agree Mike. Rarely have I seen a goalie look more awkward and unathletic. The total antithesis of Fleury. Hell, the Pens could pay me a lot less money to look that bad.

    For God’s sake Sully, give Jarry a few starts. Make Murray EARN his playing time…don’t just hand it to him on a platter. Especially in light of his recent efforts.

    If we’re looking to trade a goalie? As crazy as it seems, I’d seriously consider dumping Murray and going with Jarry and DeSmith. They could hardly do worse.

    And whatever you do JR, for goodness sake don’t sign this pigeon to any kind of a lucrative long-term deal. At $3.75 million, he’s overpaid as it is.

    Rick

    1. Hey Rick,

      While I appreciate your frustration and your rare strong expression, I have to say I think you are going overboard here. I am not all that thrilled with the OT goal last night nor the 3rd goal from the other night but I am not in agreement with your “throw the baby out with the bath water”. There were several very key saves in the 3rd period that Murray made that had it been any other goalie, the OT goal would have been moot; in fact, Bailey would never have had the opportunity to score that goal as the Isles would have won in regulation.

      Speaking as someone who has stood between the pipes, as the last line of defense, in front of shots, Murray still has all the tools and has demonstrated his clutch performance ability on the greatest stage with 2 Cups to his name. His angles are off to be sure, but that is coaching not player.

      The 2 best positions to be in are the former player of the back up. Fans only remember the good of former players – goalies in this case – and not the bad. As good as MAF was and is, many of the same complaints as well as others not mentioned here were foisted upon him. His playoff failures caused him to be benched in favor of Tomas Vokoun in 2012-2013, his Sv% for the season after the team won the Cup in 2008-2009 was only 0.905. Yet under the right Goalie Coach, MAF eventually turned in several MVP seasons.

      As for Jarry, I have already said, if he can show he is that good and cheaper, great, but let’s cool down a little.

    2. Hey guys,

      I’m sure you both know where I stand on this issue. lol

      Right now, Jarry is the number one goalie in the NHL for save %. Number one.

      Last night on that last goal, wow. All I was thinking was, what the heck is going through Murray’s mind??? I watched the relay 15 times. Every year with Murray for 3 years now all I hear a myriad of excuses.

      People said that Murray plays better when he’s trying to earn the job. He played horrible at the beginning of last year also, it was when DeSmith came in and did a stand up job is when Murray came back and played well (not in the playoffs).

      I think Sullivan needs to relinquish Murray’s number one goalie role and start a platooning system. May the best goalie win.

      1. Hey Phil,

        I am never opposed to what ever helps the team. If Platooning Murray – Jarry works best, great, if Jarry beats Murray out great (Our friend and fellow writer, Jim, once told us that Jarry was the better of the 2 coming up thru Jrs).

        However, your comment about Murray playing better when he has to earn his position goes to my point I just made to Rick B, it is one of the comments that ran through the fan base when talking about MAF when he was young. Many of Penguins fans complained MAF only played well when he was pushed too. It wasn’t until he got a competent goalie coach that MAF flowered.

      2. Hey Phil,

        I agree. There always seems to be an excuse with Murray. I’m waiting for the time-honored “the dog ate my homework” or “lost it in the sun.”

        He seems to have regressed from the early promise he displayed during the Cup years to the point where I think he’s a slightly above average goalie at best. In particular, the mental toughness and coolness under fire that he displayed seems to have dissolved.

        Right now he’s vulnerable…especially at crunch time.

        All goalies go through ups-and-downs. After all they’re human, just like the rest of us mortals. Fleury had his issues, too. I remember a stretch when he allowed a goal virtually every time he tried a poke-check. And another where he leaked a goal during the opening minute in something like five or six starts in a row. But unlike Flower, I’m not sure Murray possesses the physical ability or the mental makeup to rise above his current malaise and regain his previous form.

        Back to the crunch-time issue. I’m going to do some digging on his OT save percentage going back to last spring. But I’ll cherry-pick a stat for now. His even strength save percentage (.904) is tied for 48th among ranked goalies. Behind Sam Montembeault (who?) and just ahead of Malcolm Subban.

        A last thought. One of these days a creative individual with a techie bent is going to cobble together Fleury’s “Save of the Century” and Murray’s Tin Man-ish effort on last night’s OT killer in a GIF file.

        It’ll be painful to watch…

        Rick

        1. Hey Rick,

          If you want to Cherry Pick Stats how about this;

          When the score is within 1 goal up or down during 5 x 5 situations, Matt Murray’s Sv% this season is 0.920, Marc Andre Fleury’s is 0.914 (I hate comparing these 2 goalies – I like them both, I only pull this out since you and others keep up the comparisons)

          Or how about this stat, Murray has played 5th most minutes of all goalies in that most critical time when the score is within 1 goal (up or down). In other words he has played the 5th most critical mminutes. MAF has played the most minutes with his team winning.

          No Murray is not perfect and he has looked bad on a couple of goals. Then again, so have a lot of goalies looked bad this year. Scoring this season is way up. However, Murray has also held the fort amongst the longest stretches. To repost a paraphrased Rush Quote, it would seem an Once of Perception is once again worth a Pound of Obscure.

          I am all for placing Jarry ahead of Murray if he can beat him out but that is far from a fait acompli.

          1. The Other Rick

            A much wiser man than myself but a HOF Coach once told
            me numbers “LIE” and never even scratch the surface in
            telling the whole story.

            Just to add on to Rich and Phil’s comments – its not always
            how many goals you give up but when and how – this is the problem
            I have with Murray – he lets in momentum changing goals.

            Example – you can take a penalty in the 1st period of a game
            but the same penalty in a 2-2 game with 3min left to play would
            be viewed much differently. This is the issue I have with Murray
            who has a habit of allowing a bad goal at the worst possible
            moment.

            Just a side note – Murray doesn’t appear to have the same in
            net composure than I thought he had when we won the Cup.
            Jarry on the other hand seems very relaxed / confident and
            in control.

            Give Jarry 3, 4, or 5 games in a row and see how he does – it
            can’t hurt.

            Go Pen’s

            1. Hey Mike,

              Please don’t mistake my defense of Murray as anti Jarry, I just see a personal bias against Murray in several people that has nothing to do with Murray’s abilities, even if it is a subconscious, unacknowledge bias. Furthermore, I am all for whoever can get the team wins. I was a big fan back in the day of platooning Denis Herron and Dunc Wilson, the season they both were playing well. I believe in playing the hot goalie.

              I hear people try and sound smart by saying that numbers “lie”. I don’t mean to belittle those people because there is some truth in that and the best way to tell a lie is to wrap it up with a bit of truth. Numbers are just that numbers. They are evidence, evidence that can either be misunderstood or used by people to lie.

              Politicians and lawyers often use numbers to get people to believe lies. They subdivide populations to create an illusion that supports the narrative that they want everyon to believe. Rick and I were both doing that above, in fact that is why I responded with “cherry picked stats” to illustrate that point without saying it.

              In reasearch numbers are often misunderstood because the technicians failed to control for all confounding variables. Further up the line in a reply to Phil and Rick I point this out by showing that when you break down Jarry’s numbers by looking at who he played. In preseason players often look really good in the first couple of games playing against players who won’t make it in the NHL. Later on in the preseason, their numbers tail off as more and more veterans get added into the lineup. Jarry has only played against 2 top offenses so far this season. Against TBL he did very well, well enough to earn the chance that you express. Against Boston he got his head handed to him.

              And I do agree with you that there is a timing factor involved in when you make a save. However, the more times you have to make a big save the greater the probability is that you will fail. Murray looked horrible – guessing in the OT against NYI, but if he doesn’t make several huge, huge, critical stops in a close game there is no opportunity for him to fail in OT.

              Perhaps if he hadn’t come up huge to keep the game tied and let one of those High Danger chances in our discussion would be different right now. Many more people would be giving him a pass for the game because the Isles would have won in regulation, the Penguins would have gotten no points, but Murray would have been absolved for the goal against. As it is, Murray made the huge save to preserve the game, stole a point that the team may not of otherwise gotten but earned the unfair derision of Rick B and Phil for not getting the 2nd point. in a game the team could easilty have walked away from with none.

  4. Hi TOR!

    Penguinitis!! I really like the word! :o)

    As I write these lines, the Pens lost once again in OT 4-3. On the Isles’ OT goal, Pettersson was doing some sightseeing and Murray was completely out of position. It was ugly! I am repeating myself once again but the Pens are lacking consistency; good start but bad finish…Since Captain Sid is out, the Pens are pretty bad at face-offs. They struggle a lot.

    About your article, that would be nice to bring back Kapanen. He signed an extension in June 2019 but has no NTC. TOR, would you go with a Riikola-Kapanen trade? Or Shultz/Galchenyuk-Kapanen/Ceci?

    I would definitely keep Jarry and try to trade DeSmith. As for Murray, it depends on his salary demands. If it is over 5 million, GMJR better gives some thought about it. He may have won two Stanley Cups but his SV% has been declining for the last three seasons. He has also been dealing with some consistency issue.

    1. Hey Jorenz,

      The World Health Organization has not only recognized Penguinitis a new and extremely virulent disease, but has elevated it to epidemic status – or was it pandemic, I can’t remember, but I did see that alert.

      As I wrote below, when I saw that play in real time, I all I could think off was what did I just see. Murray wasn’t playing his position at that moment, he was just guessing and guessed wrong. He looked horrible on that play.

      Recently the team has been getting dominated in the FO circle. At the beginning of the season they were one of the better teams but now are struggling. Crosby s one of the best FO men in the league so with him hurt it is no surprise. They’re now 24th in the league.

      Are you sure about the NTC, Capfriendly doesn’t show it? But I wonder if a NTC means a player doesn’t want to leave a city or just wants some control over where he plays. If he has a NTC, Pittsburgh may be acceptable to him.

      More importantly I am don’t think the team needs to deal. To me this was more of an exercise of if Toronto did approach me about a deal how would I react. Since the rumor I read mentioned Barrie, Schultz, and DeSmith (or Jarry), I started there.

      Riikola for Kapanen? Hmm I am not sure. I like Kapanen but with Poulin and Legare in the Pipeline, I don’t feel as pressing of a need and if the league uses the same rules as last expansion draft, wouldn’t Riikola be exempt? I think, since it is only his 2nd season in NA, the team wouldn’t have to protect him; assuming they resign him – he is only on a 1 year contract.

      Schultz/Galchenyuk for Kapanen/Ceci? The Penguins would have to eat ~$2 million to make that happen. I don’t really like any RHD in Toronto, so I am not sure about this one. I guess, I would lump that in the same category as what I wrote above about Barrie – if I could swing a back up deal to replace Schultz from another source, perhaps a more defensive D man I would consider this trade. Again, since I am not the one actively seeking a trade, I would ask for a little more. I would either want a draft pick or some asset I could flip for a D man.

      Getting back to Murray, I really want the team to move on from Buckley. Most of the problems I see in Murray I attribute to coaching. We didn’t see these mistakes when Bales was here. I saw a rumor the other day that Buffalo was looking to enter the trade market, looking for a forward, I would make flipping coaches Buckley for Bales part of a forward deal.

      Actually, if the Sabres are looking for a deal as well as Toronto, I could be talked into a 3 team deal. Well not really a 3 team deal, but if Toronto agrees to my above deal of DeSmith/Schultz for Kapanen/Mikheyev/Barrie/Draft Pick I would then look to see if I could deal Galchenyuk/Simon to Buffalo for Ristolainen not to mention Buckley for Bales.

      But again, I don’t think the team needs to deal any of that except Buckley for Bales 🙂

      1. Oh, I also still would look to find a way to get Kaski in our org. I would deal for Ristolainen as a short term plan but my long term plan (life without Letang) would be to see if Kaski can live up to his potential and see that potential fulfilled in black and goal

        1. Hi TOR,

          As for Kapanen, it says on CapFriendly that he has no specific clause, he is eligible for arbitration and buyout.

  5. I guess Toronto will have to wait until Schultz gets back if they want to deal. He has come down with Penguinitis, injured in Wed practice. ?

    1. THE Other Rick

      Agree with most of your article except your assessment on Galchenyuk not
      fitting in. i think injuries have played a huge part in his slow start. Not
      just his injuries but also injuries to several of our key players. He’s shown
      the ability in the past to score goals “he just needs to get the monkey off his
      back” goals will come. I’ve really been impressed with his hockey IQ and
      passing ability.

      I know we agree on Simon – the guy drives me crazy – he can’t handle a pass
      cleanly and although the effort is there he can’t win any one on one battles in
      the offensive zone. My feelings towards Ashton Reese are similar – he muffs
      one pass after another – when the Pen’s are completely healthy I don’t see
      how either of these two are in the lineup.

      Third but not least. Matt Murray – Rick hit the nail on the head when he said
      Murray lets the worst goals in at the worst possible time. On the Islanders
      3rd goal (Bailey) Murray is face down on the ice for no reason – you and I
      would of scored “well I would of” lol. I’m all for giving Jarry more time in
      the nets.

      GO Pen’s

      1. Hey Mike,

        I was never a Galchenyuk fan but that was before I really watched him play regularly. Watching him play, I still don’t consider myself a fan but my opinion has gone up on him. I would still trade him in the above scenario, to get the above deal done, but I wouldn’t shop him, at least not right now. He and Simon, and now that you mention it, Aston-Reese would seem to me to become expendable. Although, they may be better spent in retrading Barrie for a RHD I would rather have.

        Interesting, that you bring up Simon being weak on the puck, that was one of the more frustrating things of last game, when I saw the puck stripped off of him 3 or 4 times.

        Murray, I am still a fan of his. He was lights out when Bales was here. Unfortunately, since Buckley has been here he has become inconsistent. He now tends to give up a little too much room over his short side shoulder for my liking. What may be worse is it is my understanding that Murray wants Buckley.

        In the end, although I am fan of Murray’s, I am a Penguin fan even more and if Jarry can beat him out or earn a platoon sytem, so be it.

        On the Bailey G it looked to me like Murray was off of his angle. When he went to push off the post to get back to slide forward and toward Bailey he got air and fell. Again, that was something he didn’t really mess up under Bales.

        Well, I don’t doubt that you could have put the puck up over Murray; many could. Perhaps Simon would have been the only one who would have missed that shot. He would have shot it over the net like he did in the 2nd Winnipeg game.

        1. The Other Rick

          Just finished watching the Pen’s fall “again” in OT. What
          the hell was Murray doing on the OT winner. Jesus.

          One other side note – could Ashton Reese at least throw
          a punch. Tough to watch.

          1. Hi Mike!

            I had the same thought about ZAR. My grandfather would have said ”fighting like a kitty”. ZAR dealt with two hand injuries in the past (one last season). I don’t think it is a good idea for him to be involved in a fight, unless he takes boxing lessons!

            1. Jorenz

              Totally agree on ZAR but we need his physicality on the 4th line. I think that’s an area that needs a slight upgrade.

          2. Hey Mike,

            Watching that OT goal in real time, all I could think was, “Wow, did Murray look bad”. Watching the replay several times this AM, it looks to me like he was not playing his position but guessing. He didn’t patiently wait for Bailey to make his move and then react but nervously made the first move, allowing Bailey to react and deposit the puck into a wide open net.

            ZAR – at least he had the guts to stand up for his team mate. In the preseason, when everyone (not Penguin Poop people but main stream media euphemisms) talked about trading Gudbranson I alluded to Anders Lee still being in NY and no one else on the team being able to keep him in check – but HoF (Popularity contest maybe?) GMJR eventually traded him.

            Jorenz – If my info is correct, Matt Murray at least at one time took Boxing lessons, maybe he can put ZAR in touch with his boxing coach.

          3. Hey Mike,

            You’d think somewhere in the organization, some scout would say, “Gee, maybe it would be beneficial to draft (or sign) a guy who can play AND throw a punch or two without being overwhelmed or toppling over.”

            But no…never gonna happen. At least not as long as Sullivan’s our coach. He almost seems to have an ax to grind against guys who can fight. Maybe he got beat up by a tough guy during his playing career.

            He seems to have a college hockey mentality, where fighting is downplayed. Tough to land a punch through a full face shield.

            I’m not looking forward to playing the Caps. They’re good and tough. Tom Wilson, Alex Ovechkin, Radko Gudas and Garnet Hathaway? They’re going to slice, dice and pound us into little Penguins patties…

            Rick

            1. Hey Rick,

              I get really excited every time I think about Poulin and Legare but then I realize we still have Sullivan and wonder if he will ever give them a chance. Even they may be to physical for him.

            2. Rick

              Couldn’t agree more – I like the Pen’s team but lining up in a seven game series with the Caps, Bruins, etc..etc… scares the hell out of me. I don’t see us winning those matchups.

              Hope you’re well.

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