There’s an old saying. Be careful what you wish for because you just might get it.
So it goes with the prevailing sentiment about our Penguins. There have been numerous articles published on myriad sites not only suggesting that there’ll be plenty of turnover among our favorite flightless waterfowl this offseason, but clamoring for the changes as well.
After five straight early postseason exits, there’s no question the black-and-gold’s in need of an overhaul if not a complete tear down. With no fewer than nine UFAs on the present roster, including franchise icons and future Hall-of-Famers Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang, it seems very likely a sea change could occur.
Indeed, the Pens simply don’t have the cap space to bring back all their pending free agents at anticipated rates. While letting some or all the guys walk would potentially free up significant cap space and present an opportunity to add new talent, it’s a sword that cuts both ways.
Sorry if I sound less-than-enthused about the coming shakeup. It’s just that I still have nightmares about the early 2000s. Tenuous finances forced then-GM Craig Patrick to trade away Jaromir Jagr, Alexei Kovalev and “Energizer Bunny” Martin Straka, leaving a burned-out shell of a team behind. A skeleton crew that even the incomparable Mario Lemieux couldn’t prop up.
With a farm system laid bare from trading draft picks for veterans (sound familiar?) and other picks wasted on questionable talents such as Robert Dome and Konstanin Koltsov, there was little to no help from inside the organization. Resulting in four straight non-playoff seasons.
The 2003-04 squad was especially dismal, descending into a club-record 18-game winless streak.
Remember?
Thankfully, our fates were soon to be restored, largely through the draft. We had the extreme good fortune to be in a position to select generational talents Sidney Crosby, Marc-Andre Fleury and Malkin. The mercurial Letang was plucked in the third round of the 2005 draft.
Enjoying a resurgence at the draft table, Patrick and head scout Greg Malone unearthed plums such as Colby Armstrong, Alex Goligoski, Tyler Kennedy, Ryan Malone, Brooks Orpik, Max Talbot and Ryan Whitney. By the time Ray Shero took over in 2006, the foundation for the future Stanley Cup champions was firmly in place.
Our current situation is in many ways eerily reminiscent of the early 2000s. We may well lose franchise pillars Malkin and Letang to free agency, to say nothing of top-sixers Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell. In particular, Letang would be just about impossible to replace. He does so many things well and like a fine wine, seems to be improving with age and maturity.
Players of Geno’s pedigree don’t grow on trees, either. Never mind that he may be a little long in the tooth.
A handful of potentially useful support players aside (P-O Joseph, Drew O’Connor, Samuel Poulin, Valtteri Puustinen and Radim Zohorna), there’s little in the way of legit young talent on hand to plug the gaps.
Which suggests whatever high-profile improvements the Pens make in the short run will mostly need to come from outside the organization, either through trades or free agency.
Depending on who departs, we could have up to $29 million in cap space to work with. That’s an impressive chunk of change, fueling hopes for a fairly quick turnaround and rebuild.
I’m not sure if I agree.
Although he’s done an admirable job thus far, swinging trades and signing free agents aren’t necessarily GM Ron Hextall’s bailiwicks.
It’s also important to note that teams built largely through free agency don’t necessarily succeed. For a number of years in the late ‘90s and early 2000s, Rangers GM Glen Sather routinely signed the biggest-name free agents around (Wayne Gretzky, Theo Fleury, Eric Lindros, Mark Messier to name a few). The Rangers missed the playoffs seven seasons in a row.
There’s something about having a team’s logo stenciled on a player’s heart that provides value.
So it was with our Pens. The seeds for our ‘90s champions and more recent Cup winners were sown through the draft. And building through the draft takes time.
Yes, all good things must eventually come to an end, and so it is with our current core of champions. But when the dust settles on the inevitable changes? I hope we’re not left singing that old Cinderella power ballad, Don’t Know What You Got (Till It’s Gone).
“After five straight early postseason exits, there’s no question the black-and-gold’s in need of an overhaul if not a complete tear down. “
So, if Trouba doesn’t get away with targeting Sidney Crosby’s brain with his elbow, the Penguins likely wrap that series in Game 5. Even with Dumoulin out of the series. Even with Rakell concussed , even with an emergency goalie who made DeSmith look like a starter.
Had there been any justice at all, there would have been a major penalty, expulsion and at the very least a one-game suspension, because the player (and the coach that put a bounty on Sid’s head) made clear inside the first minute of that game 5 what the mandate was: Elbow to the head of Guentzel was the tip-off. The refs letting Trouba and his ill intent hang around to then target Crosby, and y’know, effectively take him out of the series to give the Rangers a more level playing field than even a third string goalie could avail them, since they had zero answers for defending the Sid-Jake duo – had there been any semblance of justice from the league to once and for all discourage the calculation that getting rid of an inconveniently dominant player who is better at hockey than you are by way of head hunting him and sending him into concussion protocol instead of beating you in the ice – the Penguins – who dominated nearly every relevant statistical measure over their opponent – would be preparing for Game 2 tonight in Carolina.
The Penguins should not get rid of point-a-game Malkin or Letang, still a premier defenseman. What they should do is get some better support players. There is zero evidence that Letang or Crosby are slowing down anytime soon. As for Malkin, who are you all replacing him with?? Monster ingratitude, as Shakesoeare would say, but this isn’t even about that: these players are still elite: why are we performing surgery in the patient when the patient isn’t sick?? They are a healthy goalie, a few reinforcements and the promotion of POJ and maybe one or two of Poulin-Nylander-O’Connor, maybe Zohorna or Puustinen – away from being as competitive as anyone in the division. You can’t win with terrible goaltending, even if you dominate 5-on-5. What they do need is A third left be center who isn’t Carter. When Sud went down the Zbanijad line went from being completely obliterated by the Crosby line to no resistance going up against Carter, who is AWFUL. The way you folks talk, it’s as if Malkin and Letang were playing at Carter’s level. The Penguins should do their utmost to bring back those players, only parting ways if their demands are unreasonable. Not digningbthem DOESN’T give us access to younger versions of those nonpareil players: they are better off than anyone we could conceivablybreplace them with and if we can add some farm talent st cost we can realistically resign Rakell and possibly even Rust, depending on the market and how badly he wants to stick around. If he leaves, we have other options and there are other FAs we can tweak the roster with. We also have the 21st pick overall and it looks like a deep field, so that selection will start the inevitable process of a graceful rebuild. The future will arrive soon enough, but destroying the present doesn’t get us there any faster.
Hey JJ,
I agree. I believe that Rick summed it up with a great line “There’s something about having a team’s logo stenciled on a player’s heart that provides value.”
One of the best moves that the Penguins could make would be to bring Rick Tocchet back. I can’t believe nobody’s talking about it. Tocchet was the perfect Yin to Sulli’s Yang.
The Penguins could use two things. One, a big net front presence puck moving defenseman. Two a player that isn’t afraid to get his hands dirty. On the One, if Letang wants too much, go in search of the best available or work in a Dumo trade. I know it sounds crazy losing that top pairing, but if you get one great big gritty all around defenseman the Pens have enough other D guys to fill in. Two, I’m talking about a Wilson, Marchand type of player, not a fighter. Most good fighters are useless on the ice. One guy with a loose screw really makes the other team think before doing something.
I’m a big fan of letting the 3 finish what they started, maybe even signing Fleury again if he would come in as a decent priced backup. Playing for Four Stanley Cups and winning three is an amazing feat.
Hockey is a business, but if you run a team that takes care of the players, others players take notice. Players in free agency pick where they want to go and so do many of the bigger name stars in trades. If you question this you need not look any further than Buffalo.
Rick
Great article as always – You bring up some great points but for me it’s really about having a chance over the next
5 years to again compete for a Cup. Every year the reason the Penguin brass gave for not trading Malkin, Letang
etc….etc…. was to keep the core together and take another shot at the Cup. Now IMO that’s the very reason they
need to let them go so that instead of making another token playoff appearance we can eventually make a legit
run at winning a Stanley Cup. The transition will take time and again IMO is so very risky to bring Letang and Malkin
back for no other reason than there ages – could you see giving Letang 7, 8 or 9 million and the guy goes down with
a serious injury a week into the season – granted that could happen to any player but the age factor presents an
entirely different dynamic. If Hextalll views it as a business and does the right thing by the organization both players
will have new homes next season. I look forward to your feedback. “GO PENS”
Hey Mike,
Always good to read what you have to say. Sorry I haven’t been responding the way I usually do…kind of chasing my tail at the moment. But your comments and opinions are always appreciated. Especially since you’re involved with a professional team. It provides an interesting flavor and insight that the rest of us don’t have.
See my response to Jim for my two cents for what they’re worth…lol. Hope all is well.
Rick
What is inherently “risky” about being bringing two older but still highly productive players back?? WHO is replacing them exactly? I see nothing sober in the idea that burning them back is a “risk”. I sense reactionary emotions: they’ve disappointed through early-round exits so you are all stamping your feet and demanding they disappear. Tell me, who are we signing instead to be our No. 2 Center? Who’s our top defenseman? Who is eating Letang’s minutes? If Rust, who understandably everyone wants resigned (including me) had bagged that brilliant setup on the doorstep by ancient Geno in Game 6 in the third, late, you’d all be singing a different tune because we’d likely still be playing. He was all alone and couldn’t lift the puck. What’s irksome about the “we have to tear it down” brigade is it insists on confronting the “realism” of our aging core. But in large measure, all three laughed at the calendar this year (Geno 20 goals/ point per game), Sid finally healthy got back to being Sid; Letang was among the upper echelon among league defensemen. Here’s a dose of realism: we have neither the assets nor the trade bait to approximate Geno and Tanger. Getting rid of them makes us non competitive RIGHT NOw, rather than a team that finished third and was in play for first place until late in the season. If you think FSG wants a team that sucks and can’t draw you are mistaken. They are still in the mix, they are still highly competitive. Adding a good defenseman would dramatically help: that could be Joseph.
Hey Rick and Coach,
We all recognize the need for change. All of us….But what is the greatest enemy to change ….FEAR !!!
This is what I keep hearing from almost all my Pen’s friends everywhere.Fear.
They are ALL afraid of the old days returning. ….
Like President Franklin Roosevelt said “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself” !!…. We have nothing to be afraid of guys.
We are better off today than we were in 2020. We have new owners with deep pockets. 7 billion plus that have a history in operating successful sports franchises.
The Pens of the pre Crosby days had little money to work with as compared to the Fenway group.
FYI guys, I just read today Ron Burkle, the real money behind the Penguins,according to Forbes 400, his net worth DROPPED from a high of $3.1 Billion in 2013 to only $1.4 Billion in 2020 before the Fenway sale.That was the real reason they sold the Penguins. Mario needed money and Ron needed cash to save his empire.It worked because Forbes has Ron at $2.1 Billion as of today after the sale of the Pens, sale of some other assets, and the rebounding California market.
All this to say we are way better today as a Sports franchise today than we were with the previous owners given this financial information.
So for me I have to trust the new owners in that they know what they are doing and they have the deep pockets to make a few mistakes and still keep going and make us a Cup Contender again.
Plus from my research they are not patient investors by their previous track records.
Change is coming and soon. I for one welcome it and many other NHL teams do not have the financial resources to compete.
Keep the faith….
Cheers
JIM
i hear ya, Jim.
Sooner or later, changes have to happen. Hanging on to our existing core…at least at exorbitant rates…is foolhardy and wouldn’t allow us to add new talent.
Still, there’s the potential for SO much turnover that’s it’s liable to leave some gaping holes in our lineup, especially up front. We simply don’t have the talent at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to plug all the gaps. Or at least not enough to maintain a high standard of performance without some significant adds from outside the organization.
Combined with the fact that Hextall favors a patient approach of building through the draft rather than making splashy trades or free-agent signings? It’s like a jigsaw puzzle where the pieces don’t fit…at least for the immediate future. And, according to a Madden article over on the Trib, a dynamic that may have already created some tension between FSG and GMRH.
Given that our new ownership didn’t buy the team to finish out of the money, it’s going to be very interesting to see how this works out. It almost seems FSG would prefer a wheeler-dealer like Jim Rutherford at the helm.
Rick
Hey Rick,
I should make one thing clear guys. I would sign back Geno and Letang to a team friendly contract of 2 years in length max. and a severe salary discount. 5 Million max in year 1 and 4 million in year 2. But also I would make it very clear that their role would be as a third line center and a second pairing D man. That has to happen to move forward. We need to find new talent and we can not just bring back the old gang again.
Rick it will never happen and that is why I see little hope of them returning…
But before you all think I am crazy, remember Sid only gets paid 3 million a season for the final 3 years of his contract.Even though his cap hit is 8.7 per season. He is the best value on the team moving forward.
Jim
Hey Jim,
I do agree with you for the most part. There are knee-jerk reactionaries out there that, with no real hockey knowledge, wanting to get rid of Malkin and Letang at all costs – how pathetic. If I could sign either or both Malkin and Letang to team friendly deals, I would. These players are at the back end of their careers but still better than most players in the league. Furthermore, as I wrote elsewhere, replacing them with another free agent will cost at least as much, if not more and there is no real replacement for either in the Pens farm system.
Had the team not frittered away draft picks and even tried to trade up a couple of spots in the recent past, or made scouted Europe better they may have been able to pluck replacements for 71 and 58. However, that ship has sailed as it stands now, there is no real replacement.
On the flip side, there are those fans out there that don’t seem to understand that there is only so much money to go around. As much as I would love for a Disney Ending, in the real world, Letang and Rust have already made it clear that they want to go for the $$$. And Malkin has recently made overtures to the same, even though he originally said he would consider a team friendly.
Aye there’s the rub, it appears our Pens can’t afford to sign Malkin and Letnag nor can they really afford to lose them.
I only differ in what I would offer to keep them and how I would use them if I could sign them. I would offer up to 3 years and $5 – 6 Million to each. Also, with no real replacements for them, I would still employ Malkin on my second line and although I would significantly reduce his TOI I would still use Letang on my top pairing, at least until I could find a replacement.
I am not really holding my breath though, I just don’t see that happening.
He Rick,
Great stuff my friend. Seriously great point also. As we talked yesterday, I don’t look forward to the change, only acknowledge its necessity. I really have yet to look at this off-season’s UFA market, don’t know who else besides penguins are out there, but to go along with your point, even if there is a player of equal or greater value to a Geno, Letang or Rust, guess what people, they are going to be asking for roughly the same type of contract. If we can’t afford to sign our own UFAs, we can’t really afford to replace them. That is why I wanted to trade them, to get something in return (Picks and good prospects).
After all these season, it will/would be really weird to see Geno, Kris, and Bryan wearing a different sweater but even the probability of even 1 of those 3 staying isn’t a lock, so the probability of all 3 returning is pretty close to nil. Not only is that a economic reality, it may very well be necessary to kick start the rebuild.
My biggest fear, a fear that has a fair probability of being realized is that the architect of these abysmal failures, these 4 consecutive losses will escape unscathed and still retain his position next season. More so than losing any player to UFA, changes in Coaching have to occur, otherwise there will be no forward movement, our Penguins will continue to be undersized underachievers.
Sorry Rick that was me TOR who forgot to put his name on his reply