The Penguins signed popular right wing and soon-to-be free agent Bryan Rust to a six-year extension last night for $30.75 million, an average annual value of $5.125. A move I found as surprising as it was quick, bold and decisive.
Although the cap hit certainly isn’t out of line for a player of Rust’s performance history and abilities, the term is. Especially when you consider the 30-year-old’s age, health history and playing style.
Due at least in part to his tenacious, driving, hell-for-leather approach, “Trusty Rusty” has never skated in more than 72 games during an NHL season. He missed 22 games in 2021-22 with various ailments.
When healthy, there’s no questioning Rust’s work ethic or value. He’s tallied 73 goals in 171 regular-season games over the past three seasons, second-most on the club behind Jake Guentzel and an impressive average of 35 goals per 82 games.
This season was arguably his finest. Rust tallied 24 goals and established new career highs with 34 assists and 58 points, including an absolutely Mario-esque three-game stretch early in the New Year when he exploded for seven goals and 11 points following a return from injury. Helping him snag NHL Third Star honors for the month of January.
My personal take? While I love Rust and what he brings to the table, a couple of concerns. One, a fairly sizeable chunk of his production over the past three seasons…23 goals to be exact…have come on the power play. There’s certainly nothing wrong with that, but it alters the perception somewhat of Rust as an even-strength dynamo.
Along those lines, he’s a good possession player but not a great one (Corsi of 50.96).
Two, a few years down the road will the Pens be looking to shed Rusty’s contract a la Patric Hornqvist, who inked a similar deal back in 2018-19? There are a lot of overlays in terms of playing style and the wear and tear they absorb.
I guess time will tell.
On the plus (plus) side, Rust blends beautifully with Sidney Crosby and Guentzel to form one of the more dynamic and effective lines in hockey. He’s versatile, clutch and a heart-and-soul player to boot, willing to sacrifice anything for the good of the team.
You can never have enough of them.
Hey Rick,
I have to be truthful, when Rust came out and said he wanted to be paid what he thought he was worth, I thought he was going to ask for something in the $6.5 Million range and quite frankly, I don’t doubt there is some GM out there that would have given that to him. Like you, I worry a bit about the length of the contract but I thought the $$$$ was right.
Now, I won’t argue that Guentzel – Crosby – Rust form a really good line, there is a line combination that is far more dynamic to put Rust on if Geno comes back. Over the last 3 years 5-on-5 the Guentzel – Crosby – Rust line has
CF%: 52.80, FF%: 52.43, SF%: 51.47, TGF/60: 3.02, TGA: 2.25, TGF%: 57.28,
That line combo certainly wins most 5 on 5 situations and would make the most sense if Geno does not re sign.
However, if Geno re signs as well, Guentzel – Malkin – Rust line has
CF%: 65.75, FF%: 59.49, SF%: 59.93, TGF/60: 4.68, TGA/60: 2.23, TGF%: 67.74
Look through the facts, aka the statistics, the evidence, the G-M-R line scores far more than the G-C-R line and gives up roughly the same amount of Goals (0.03 less per 60 minutes). If Geno does re sign, pairing Rust with him and Guentzel maximizes both Offense and Defense. So pairing Bryan with Geno and Jake may negate your worry about 5-on-5 play.
And before anyone wants to fall back into emotion or superstition to argue against the facts of what I just wrote, allow me to quote John Adams – 2nd President of the United States when arguing a case before the courts after the Boston Massacre, “Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence…” A person may not like what I have written, but it is fact.
The Other Rick
I would have to dispute your comments above. Stats are the furthest thing from facts. No matter what happened
previously with the Malkin, Guentzel & Rust line it’s a mute point simply because Malkin is not the same player and in my
humble opinion the regression will continue into 2022-23 season. These stats “facts” would have to be from several years ago unless you’re going off a very, very small sample of games (Malkin only played in 41 games this past season and 33 games the previously season) and as I stated above Malkin is not the same player as he was 3 years ago and For the sake of beating a dead horse he refuses to adjust his game as he ages. Also, in my opinion the only way Malkin & Letang are given new contracts by Hextall is to keep Sid the Kid happy. Both Letang and Malkin have done an extraordinary marketing job attaching themselves to Crosby’s hip. “THE TIME FOR CHANGE IS NOW” GO PENS
ps – excuse any typo’s or grammar mistakes – I was dictating while driving so I’m hoping some of it makes sense.
Hey Mike, Tor,
I agree Mike. I see Tor post this all of the time often using it in his ceaseless criticism of Sullivan. I remember that line doing well years ago perhaps it was when Crosby was out, I cannot remember. I also believe that it is two dimensional thinking. Sure, if that was all Sullivan needed to think about while coaching it would be a no brainer.
What are Crosby’s line numbers are without Guentzel and Rust compared to Malkins without Guentzel and Rust.
An example would be G-Malkin-R line puts up 4 points a game while Crosby’s line without them puts up 1 point a game netting 5 goals. While G-Crosby-R puts up 3 a game while Malkin without puts up 3 a game netting 6 goals. That’s just one of many examples.
Another would be that most of the GMR time would have been with the top defensive pairing because Crosby most likely would have been out. When Crosby is playing, the top D line gets split time. Basically there is a ridiculous amount of scenarios where just comparing those stats straight up makes no sense for how to set team lines.
Hey Phil,
I guess I was right again huh Phil? I called it in 2015-2016. I was one of the first people here to believe in the Pens. In 2016-2017, I said if they won it would be on the strength of strong Goaltending, MAF had 2 SO s, Murray 3, including the last 2 games of the series. I said Sullivan never would use Reaves, when JR traded away a 3rd line Center and a 1st round pick. I called the Bressard trade a serious mistake that would cost the team a 3-peat and it did. I called the the actual sweep the Isles embarrassed us with. I called the loss to the 23rd ranked Canadiens, I called the the ensuing loss to the isles again. And I called this year, saying we would never get out of the first round.
Oh, I knee jerked reaction over Matheson – he isn’t the Gv artist I feared, and McGinn played better than I had hoped for but I play the probabilities (stats) Phil and that is why I usually right. I even called E-Rod this year, saying he would score a lot at the start of the season when playing Center on a top line but his production would bottom out when Sullivan would insist on using him like a Swiss Army knife.
You can hate me all you want Phil, for being right as often as I am. You can sift through and try and find the 1 or 2 times I was wrong so you can boast, but if you bet, you would make far more money if you listened to me then your passions. Read the John Adams quote below.
I play the odds Phil
Think about your “great” calls for a second. Erod would score a lot on the top line at the beginning of the season then score less when not on the top line. Amazing call. Another: “I said if they won it would be on the strength of strong Goaltending,” Let’s break this down. For one the “if”, it takes away any call. If you said the Pens “will” win it on strong goaltending, that is a prediction and two they would win on the strength of goaltending, part of just about every Stanley Cup win so you went out on a limb there, but then let’s break it down even more, the Pens had the worst save percentage and goals against than the six Stanley Cup winning teams before them. The Brassard trade was a mistake yes, you were correct on that. Saying it cost the Pens a CUP, you had a 97% chance of being right.
I could have said at the beginning of this season if the Pens get rid of Simon they will not win the Cup. Was it the reason? No, it wasn’t but 97% chance I would nail it. I’m saying it here first, If the Pens have great goaltending and scoring next playoffs they will win the Cup. Playing the odds.
The Pens made the Playoffs this year, someone said they wouldn’t. No biggie.
Anyhoo, you know more than I do about players & prospects and probably more than 99% of the hockey people I know. Heck for almost a year there I was in agreement with most of what you had to say. Then you get on these kicks where you hate a player or coach and twist every piece of data to make your case work.
As for Sullivan. I hear you complain about him all of the time. I consider him one of the top coaches in the NHL, obviously many other people do as well or he wouldn’t have been picked to head the USA Olympic team. I always look beyond the “get rid of Sullivan” or “get rid of Malkin” people to the what is available to replace the person. Every time you complained about Sullivan, there has never been anyone even close to equal or better to replace him. There are maybe 3 coaches that I believe could be better. Barry Trotz is now available. I would also be fine just putting the Sulli/Tocchet show back on the air.
Phil,
I said that E-Rod would score Centering in the top 2 Lines not being part of the top 2 lines. He played RW on Sid’s line and did very little. He played his best before either Sid or Geno came back. He is not a Swiss Army Knife, He is a Center.
I wrote “if” because there never is a guarantee that a team will not lose their starting Goalie or even their starter and their back up. I loved the Fluery – Murray tandem. If they both would have been injured ala Jarry – DeSmith, or Anderson – Raanta experienced in the first round., the defense that year I didn’t /Don’t think that “D” would have been good enough to insulate the Pens next Goalie Up.
Actually Bos in 2010 (90.98) and LAK in 2014 (91.05) had a lower Sv% than Pgh in 2016 (91.84) and add Chi in 2015 (92.40) to the list of teams who had lower Sv% than Pgh in 2017 (92.82) – the year I said the Pens needed to lean on their Goalies because their D was weak. More to the point, there were people right here on this site that argue the Pens Defense would insulate them.
Again, let’s look at the history about the Brassard trade, many here were soooo behind getting Brassard at that time, while I wrote that any trade at that point would at best screw up the teams chemistry and at worse throw players away needlessly. I also wrote that the only player on Ottawa’s roster I would trade for would have been JG Pageau. Brassard has continued a down hill slide while Pageau had several good seasons after that with this past season being the worst he has had in a while.
As for me saying that the Pens wouldn’t make the Playoffs this season, I acknowledge that that was one of the times I was wrong. I also said I play the Percentages and their are always outliers to Percentages. I am right far more times than I am wrong because of that. I don’t allow emotion to cloud my judgement.
As for Sullivan, if he really was all that important of a coach, he would have been nominated for a jack Adams, even when he had a shot at a 3-peat, he wasn’t nominated. Furthermore, I have laid out my complaints about Sullivan many times and as of yet no one has ever countered even 1 of the factors that cause me not to want him as a Coach. No one can argue that he contradicted his GM in the media, it is a matter of record, nor can anyone honestly contradict that contradicting in the media is insubordination and a fire able offense. No one can argue that he went in the media after getting swept by the Isles and said that the players weren’t listening to him – admitting he lost the team, again that is a matter of public record and a fire able offense. None of my statements are about feelings or other vague, objective factors. I present evidence.
Chicago .90120 2010
Pens .91818 2016
Chicago .92483 2015
Boston .92178 2014
Chicago .92178 2013
LA .92290 2012
Boston .92921 2011
Under All Strengths and At All Scores in the Playoffs
Season – Stanley Cup Champs – Sv% – Playoff Rank
2009-2010 – Chicago Blackhawks – 0.9049 – 9th
2010-2011 – Boston Bruins – 0.9377 – 1st
2011-2012 – Los Angeles Kings – 0.9443 – 1st
2012-2013 – Chicago Black Hawks – 0.9290 – 4th
2013-2014 – Los Angeles Kings – 0.9105 – 7th
2014-2015 – Chicago Black Hawks – 0.9240 – 6th
2015-2016 – Pittsburgh Penguins – 0.9184 – 8th
2016-2017 – Pittsburgh Penguins – 0.9282 – 3rd
These data are taken from Natural Stat Trick, as noted above: under the conditions of Playoff Goaltending All Strengths, All Scores. It looks like you are looking at regular season data which is meaningless come playoff time. Particularly when the discussion is about how the Penguin Goalies would fare come the playoffs, talking about regular season numbers is non sequitur.
Furthermore, in the team with the best Sv% in the playoffs only won the Cup 2 out of the 8 years we are looking at. Therefore, my saying, the Penguins would need strong Goaltending to win that Cup was saying something – and they did have strong Goaltending, better than any of the teams they faced. Only St. Louis and San Jose had better Sv% than the Penguins and San Jose bowed out of that playoff in 6 GP and St Louis in 11.
Some Cups are won with overpowering offense, some with stifling defense and other with spectacular goaltending.
Maybe we are living in a multiverse or something.
“Therefore, my saying, the Penguins would need strong Goaltending to win that Cup was saying something – and they did have strong Goaltending, better than any of the teams they faced. Only St. Louis and San Jose had better Sv% than the Penguins and San Jose bowed out of that playoff in 6 GP and St Louis in 11. ”
Maybe I just don’t know how to read stats. Three of the teams the Penguins played (Capitals, Sharks and Lightning) had better Save Percentages as did almost half of the teams in the playoffs. Pretty much puts the Penguins goaltending at just about dead smack average playoff goaltending in my book.
Washington Capitals2015-16 12 .940
Florida Panthers 2015-16 6 .934
Tampa Bay Lightning2015-16 17 .929
Anaheim Ducks 2015-16 7 .927
Philadelphia Flyers 2015-16 6 .925
San Jose Sharks 2015-16 24 .919
New York Islanders 2015-16 11 .918
Pittsburgh Penguins 2015-16 24 .918
And oops only four (not five) of the six previous Stanley Cup winners had better Save Percentages. Still puts the Pens goaltending at average.
You’ve always had an obsession with the Jack Adams award. I remember you were very upset Sullivan was snubbed. Jack Adams is nice, “best regular season coach award” I believe nominated by media. It’s a small step up from a participation award and mostly a popularity contest not a judge of coaching quality, but it’s nice.
Being picked by the USA Ice Hockey Committee out of all of the available coaches to be head coach of the USA Olympic Ice hockey team is a REAL honor. It also shows that many believe Sullivan is a good coach.
Phil,
You are getting far afield to justify your stance. I didn’t write the Penguins needed strong goaltending to win the Cup in 2015-2016, I said, “if they win a Cup in 2016-2017, it would be their Goaltenders that won the Cup because their defense would not be there to help them”, so 2015-2016 has no bearing on my predictions of 2016-2017. 2015-2016 is apples to oranges in relation to my assertion.
I had no respect for the defense they put on the ice that season/post season. The Defense was giving up tons of shots. And where did the Penguins Defense finish when it came to Shots Against per 60 that season – 5th worst of the playoffs at 30.80. Two of the teams that were worse than our Penguins didn’t get out of the 1st round (Columbus – 32.76 and Toronto – 31.16), Edmonton at 32.2 only made it to the 2nd round. Nashville, their opponent that season in the Finals only ceded 27.38. The Difference in the Finals was the Pens Goaltending. Nashville’s Sv% was 0.9225 to the Pens 0.9282. In the 2 Games they lost in that Series final, the team only scored 1 Goal. In the 4 Games they won they had 2 Shutouts. The Murray-Fluery tandem had 5 Shutouts that post season, despite the Defense giving up some of the most shots in the playoffs that season.
About the Jack Adams:
1) Not arguing, I did say Sullivan was snubbed for not getting a nomination for the Jack Adams at first, way back when. I have often freely admitted that. However, hindsight, which is 20/20 has altered my opinion. After Sullivan was snubbed a 2nd time, I started to wonder why; what was the rest of the world looking at that I was missing? After he bought a third snub while chasing a 3-peat I took off my Rose – Colored glasses to see the light of day.
2) By definition the Jack Adams trophy is a Trophy for the regular season but is given to the Coach who contributed to the team’s winning the most. Therefore, since the rest of the league never nominated him, they felt his contribution to the team was not that great, effectively saying he was a passenger on the bus!
Only Pittsburgh over values Sullivan. Other cities may be too civil to say what their thinking, but their votes speak volumes as to their opinion.
“Only Pittsburgh over values Sullivan. Other cities may be too civil to say what their thinking, but their votes speak volumes as to their opinion.”
??????????????????????
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>>>>>> SULLIVAN WAS PICKED TO COACH THE USA OLYMPIC HOCKEY TEAM THIS YEAR. <<<<<<<< /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ "Therefore, since the rest of the league never nominated him, they felt his contribution to the team was not that great, effectively saying he was a passenger on the bus!" Perhaps this will help you understand: Therefore, since the rest of the league never nominated Murray for the Calder trophy or Vezina, his contribution to the team was not that great, effectively Murray was just a passenger on the bus. These popularity "awards" are given out by the broadcasters association not peers. Given out by the people that Sullivan wouldn't let the players answer questions about injuries and other stuff to. It is a known fact and has been posted online that many especially from non hockey cities don't even know who they are voting for. I did find an amazing stat while looking at Stanley Cup #'s. The Penguins in both 15/16 and 16/17 blocked more shots that any other Stanley Cup winning team in the history of the Stanley Cup. They ranked #1 and #2. Since then Tampa's first of the back to back Cup's they blocked more.
What? “The Penguins in both 15/16 and 16/17 blocked more shots that any other Stanley Cup winning team in the history of the Stanley Cup.”
The Tampa Bay Lightning hold that distinction (Stanley Cup Champs with most blocks) in 2019-2020.
The problem with that raw number is that it is skewed by games and minutes played. That is why I normalized it to Blks/60 minutes like anyone not looking to justify their argument would do. When normalized the Penguins fall to 4th (2015-2016) and 5th in (2016-2017). Otherwise we are once again comparing apples to oranges. And to really understand how important those numbers are we first have to find out what the Standard Deviation is. Any numbers less than a SD from the mean are well not impressive. IN 2016-2017, the difference between the Penguins at 5th place in terms of Blks/60 and the Penguins at 5th (typo when I wrote it earlier they are in 5th place) and the Habs in 8th was only 0.67, barely 1/2 a block, not enough to get all worked up about their blocking.
Let’s face it, our Penguins were not Shot Blocking beasts, they were about average to about a touch above average that is all.
Blame Eichel just to bury your head in the sand. It is well past time to part ways with Sullivan.
Everything you say about Sullivan to defend him was said about Bylsma and where is Bylsma now? Bylsma also was picked to Coach the US Olympic team and how did that turn out?
I beat the drum for Bylsma’s removal and received the same push back, “He is great, he won a Cup and was the US Olympic Coach. Who would you replace him with?” and similarly when I voiced the idea of moving on from Mike Johnston.
As for Murray not getting the Calder or the Vezina, Apples and Oranges again. We are talking about Sullivan and I never suggested he win either award. I did suggest that his name should be and it was in consideration with Crosby and Kessell for the Conn Smythe in 2015-16, but never any other trophy. Furthermore, I am doggedly trying to justify him as should have been kept on the Penguins roster. And even came out and said I would never have kept him around when he went UFA and asked for the big $$$$.
I don’t let sentimentality cloud my vision. Four straight first round losses, 5 years of rapid descent from grace as the Coach trades out the players he inherited to players he wants. It is well past time to move on.
As for shot blocking:
In 2015-2016 the Minnesota Wild blocked 22.53 Shots/60, Philadelphia Flyers blocked 20.83/60, The San Jose Sharks blocked 19.41/60, coming at 4th – our Penguins with 17.57, almost 5 less than the leader, and in 5th the Nashville Predators with 17.33, only 0.24 less shots/60. It is the playoffs, blocking shots is what you do.
In 2016-2017 the San Jose Sharks blocked 21.07 shots/60, the New York Rangers 19.10, the Chicago Blackhawks 18.46, the Toronto Maple Leafs 17.13, our Pens don’t check in until 4th with 16.99, but hot on their heels were the St. Louis BLues at 16.93, the Edmonton Oilers at 16.86 and the Montreal Canadiens at 16.80.
More importantly the team dropped from blocking 17.57/60 in 2015-16 to 16.9 in 2016-17 but the Sv% went up. Goaltending was the difference.
And as for Sullivan, what did he do, he basically forced JR to trade Ian Cole who lead the team in the regular season of 2016-17 in Blks at 194 and in the post season with 52.
The Penguins in both 15/16 and 16/17 blocked more shots that any other Stanley Cup winning team in the history of the Stanley Cup. Stanley Cup winning team is the key part there. I wasn’t trying to offend you with that stat, I just had no idea that they set the record for that.
I know everyone thought team speed was the key Penguins trait that won them the Cups, but the fact that they set that record and then Tampa Bay followed that same plan two years later to win is very interesting.
And yes, they did trade a lot their shot blockers away. Mainly because they could not afford them as other teams were picking apart the Pens Stanley Cup winning players by offering rediculous contracts. That and Ian Cole who self proclaimed that he broke the same team rule several times. I don’t know which rule.
Jack Adams winning (lol) coach Bylsma is an assistant on a team that is in the third round of the Calder Cup right now. Bylsma is one of the many coaches that have and will later fall victim to Eichel. I don’t wish Eichel upon any team, other than maybe the Flyers.
Mike Johnson is a reason not to move on from Sullivan. I have stated on here many times that it is very easy to say get rid of this or that person. Tell me who you replace Sullivan with?
Mike,
My numbers were taken from the with-or-without stats of the last 3 seasons (complete stats). The point may be moot, not because Malkin is regressing, but because there is a chance he won’t be here.
As for stats, stats are evidence. They are the number of times the G-M-R line scored per 60 min and the number of times the G – M – R line was scored upon. The same is true for the G – C – R line. And as John Adams said “Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence…” A person can choose to ignore them and give into your wishes, inclinations, or passions, but that is their choice.
I don’t like Pettersson or Marino but the stats show when paired they were an effective pair both in the playoffs and regular season. Apart they pretty much stink but together they hold their own. I wish it weren’t so. I would rather see both of these guys gone, but facts are stubborn things.
I don’t like Matheson, but the numbers say he was the best LHD we had last season. My likes, dislikes, and wishes don’t alter the numbers and they say he is has not played as bad as I feared and on the third pairing most of the season acquitted himself fairly well.
The interesting thing that almost everyone notes, every time Crosby gets hurt, “Malkin picks up his game.” The reason Malkin appears to pick up his game is that he rarely gets good wingers while Sid is in the lineup. Crosby on the other had almost never picks his game up when Malkin is out of the lineup. Why? Because opponents can throw ALL of their best defensive players against him. Without Malkin the team doesn’t win the Cup 2009. The hip joining over the Crosby-Malkin era was reciprocal. Both players benefitted from each other.
Our Coach misused stats to justify constantly stealing ice time off viable NHL level Forwards to give that time to Simon. The CORSI stat he quoted didn’t lie, it was just incomplete. The coach never looked at, or at least mentioned that the CORSI Percent was below the Offensive Zone Start Percent often, it dropped significantly when away from Crosby (talk about someone benefitting from Sid), and it dropped significantly when the score was close. Furthermore, games are not won based on who has more shot attempts – they win on Goal differential.
I can’t say Sullivan really doesn’t understand stats or how confounding variable play into them or if he deliberately, hypocritically cherry picks when he pays attention to them, but if he had played G – M – R when all three were healthy, these last three seasons, he would have maximized the talents of those three players – that is all I am saying.
Rick
Not sure how I feel about signing Rust to a 6 year deal but I do give Hextall credit for moving quickly – this at least
gives him an idea of where they are financially going forward. When you consider Horny’s contract 4 or 5 years
ago this has to be considered a bargain and realistically they shouldn’t have a problem shedding his salary in
3 to 4 years from now.
I haven’t really looked at the Pen’s cap numbers but how does this impact Letang and Malkin??. I’m hoping this
contract allows room to re-sign Rakell. Look forward to your feedback.
GO PENS
Hey Mike
There is a really good article below explaining the cap situation. by Dan Kingerski.You might find it helpful.
I too thought Rust would obtain 6.5 million to 7 million dollar contract on the open market. I am happy with the contract price but like you I wish it was a shorter term of maybe 4 year’s instead. These last few years could be painful.
Cheers
JIM